Rising interest rates and a slowing economy overall are already taking some of the air out of the rapid home-price appreciation the housing market has experience over the past year, according to the recently released Federal Reserve Beige Book for July.

Several leading housing-market economists also are projecting the deceleration in home prices will continue in near the future as homebuyer demand ebbs — with one economist even predicting that prices will decline in some particularly hot markets across the nation.

“Housing demand weakened noticeably as growing concerns about affordability contributed to non-seasonal declines in sales, resulting in a slight increase in inventory and more moderate price appreciation,” states the Federal Reserve’s most recently released Beige Book report — based on data and reports current as of mid-July.

The Beige Book reports, published eight times a year, are based on interviews with bank directors, business and community organization leaders, economists, market experts and other sources. 

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group also released a recent report that projects year-over-year growth in home-price appreciation for 2022 will reach 16%. Much of that appreciation is front-loaded, however, with outlook for the months ahead not so bullish. The Fannie Mae report projects “strong deceleration in home-price growth going forward” due to higher mortgage rates and the overall slowing economy affecting purchase demand.

“With inflation running well above the target rate, the market’s expectation that further, substantial monetary tightening is needed has driven interest rates even higher, and interest rate-sensitive sectors, including housing, are slowing in response,” said Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “Homes listed for sale are increasingly seeing asking-price reductions, and both construction and home sales — both existing and new — are slowing.”

Freddie Mac, in a quarterly forecast report issued by its chief economist, Sam Khater, also projects that homebuyer demand will moderate in the months ahead, resulting in a switch from “the hot housing market of the last two year to a more normal pace of activity.”

“The Federal Reserve’s action to help manage inflation [by raising rates] has created significant volatility in mortgage rates and, by extension, the housing market,” Khater said. “Although house-price appreciation will grow at a more moderate rate, home prices [still] remain high relative to homebuyer incomes. 

“Taken together, these factors are exacerbating affordability challenges and causing a slowdown in the housing market.”

Freddie Mac projects that home-price growth will average 12.8% in 2022 but will drop to 4% in 2023. By comparison, home-price growth was 17.8% in 2021, Freddie Mac reports.

“Overall, annual mortgage origination levels are expected to be $2.8 trillion in 2022 and $2.3 trillion 2023, down from $4.8 trillion in 2021,” the agency’s quarterly forecast states.

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, during a webinar late last week sponsored by mortgage-analytics firm Recursion, also offered a sober outlook for home-price growth. Zandi stresses, however, that despite the headwinds, we are unlikely to see a housing-market meltdown like that experienced during the global financial crisis some 15 years ago.

“We calculate that over 80% of metro areas are meaningfully overvalued,” Zandi said during the Recursion webinar. “… First-time homebuyers are locked out because they just simply can’t afford to buy … and trade-up buyers are locked in [with interest rates well below current market levels].

“So, home sales have really gotten completely hammered,” Zandi said. “Inventories are rising across the country. They’re still low by historical standards, but I suspect that’s going to change pretty quickly, particularly in the most juiced markets.”

Zandi adds that those dynamics, coupled with analysis of other data, suggest strongly that the housing market is going to experience a correction in prices.

“The market is going to go into correction,” he said. “I don’t think, however, it’s going to crash for several reasons.”

The reasons it will avoid a crash, according to Zandi, are that overall housing-inventory levels remain relatively tight by historical measures; mortgages overall have and continue to benefit from solid underwriting and oversight; and we are not seeing the kind of speculation that marked the housing market in the run-up to the 2006/07 crash.

“I don’t think national housing prices will decline in a meaningful way,” Zandi said. “But there will be some price declines across the country.

“The worst price declines [are projected to] be close to double digits — [near] 10% peak to trough — [in places like a] Phoenix, or Tampa. Although in the grand scheme of things, those also are markets where prices were up 30% this past year and 30% the previous year, so you’re only giving back a bit of a bit of what was been gained over the past few years.”

Julia Coronado, president and founder of housing-market research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives, stressed that homebuyers and consumers generally are not as highly leverage in terms of debt, compared to the era of the prior housing-market crash some 15 years ago. That, she explained, will help moderate the impact of any housing-price decline going forward. 

In fact, Coronado said for some markets that have experience rapid home-price appreciation, a decline in home values may benefit the overall market.

“At least what I’m seeing in a very speculative market here on the ground in Austin is that a rapid pace of price discounting is now taking hold, which I think is great,” said Coronado, who also participated in the Recursion webinar. “We’ve gone up about 50%, one of the highest paces of appreciation over the last two years, and if we [home prices in Austin] went down 30%, it would be fine. 

“You’d still have most homeowners up in value overall and meanwhile, it could provide a lot of relief on rent growth, on [housing] affordability and facilitate a move back to lower mortgage rates over time.”

The Beige Book

Following are excerpts of statements on housing conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts —drawn from the just-released July Federal Reserve Beige Book. The current report is based on information and data collected on or before July 13. The prior Beige Book report was based on information collected on or before May 23..

Boston — First District [Boston] contacts reported that higher mortgage rates had led to somewhat cooler demand for residential real estate, resulting in increased inventories in recent months. …Inventories increased in most markets in recent months, reflecting a softening of demand, but remained down on a year-over-year basis in several markets. The price of single-family homes continued to rise at about the same year-over-year pace as a month earlier. 

New York — Housing markets have been mixed since the last report, with the rental market continuing to strengthen but the sales market weakening noticeably. Both in New York City and across the metropolitan region, there has been a steady and pronounced decline in signed contracts in both May and June, going against normal seasonal trends. … A leading local real estate authority attributed this drop-off in sales to a combination of low affordability, rising mortgage rates and increased uncertainty. There has also been a rise in the inventory of available homes — though it is still quite low — but not a reduction in prices thus far. 

Philadelphia — On balance, contacts reported that sales traffic and contract signings for new homes fell modestly, more so for high-end houses. One contact noted that customers were waiting for lower rates or lower prices. Brokers noted that existing home sales continued to fall slightly, and that signs had emerged of a cooler market. While overall prices continued to rise on a year-over-year basis, one broker noted a significant number of price reductions in a recent 24-hour period. However, housing affordability remains a challenge, and rents remain high. 

Cleveland — Residential construction and real estate activity softened further amid rising interest rates. … Going forward, contacts anticipated housing demand would slow further as rising interest rates and high inflation push more buyers out of the market.

Richmond — Respondents indicated that the residential real estate market remained competitive. However, contacts reported there was a shift in market activity to slightly lower sales volumes and a reduction in buyer traffic, which they attributed to higher mortgage rates. Inventories of homes for sale and days on market increased in the last month while growth in listing prices for homes started to soften. Nonetheless, in many markets the shortage of new homes persisted, as did the slowing of new-home completion due to supply chain disruptions. Potential homebuyers were being priced out of the housing market by the interest-rate increases and higher home prices, particularly first-time homebuyers. 

Atlanta — Housing demand throughout the district continued to slow as affordability declined. Home prices reached record levels while mortgage rates rose sharply. The combination of these factors led to a sharp drop in affordability throughout the district. Mortgage originations and pending sales fell in most markets compared with year-earlier levels, as more potential buyers were priced out of the market. Still, the number of days on market remained near record lows. Supply chain disruptions and cost inflation moderated somewhat for new homes. However, builders reported greater buyer resistance to price increases and the need to offer incentives, such as covering closing costs, to sell homes. 

Chicago — Construction and real estate activity decreased slightly on balance over the reporting period…. Residential real estate activity decreased modestly. Rising mortgage rates were a factor pushing down the number of offers per house; still, home prices were up slightly. Rents rose modestly 

St. Louis — The residential real estate market has slowed slightly since our previous report due to rising mortgage rates. Total homes sold and pending sales have fallen since our previous report. Inventory has continued to remain scarce, and house prices are at elevated levels relative to income, especially for first-time homebuyers. Multiple contacts reported fewer bids per listing since our previous report, a signal that demand is beginning to cool. Most contacts are expecting real estate demand to slow further in the coming months. The rental market continues to be extremely competitive. Rents … saw strong growth in recent months. Many discouraged would-be homebuyers seem to be turning to rentals to avoid high mortgage rates and home prices. 

Minneapolis — Residential real estate activity was moderately lower. New listings in June flattened and pending sales fell, largely attributed to higher mortgage rates. Price discounts were reportedly rising but have not yet impacted median prices meaningfully. 

Kansas City — Growth in residential construction activity was mixed across segments, with more forward-looking indicators of activity declining moderately. … Single-family construction declined slightly. The large number of housing projects previously under construction kept the level of activity high. However, the number of buyers for newly built homes fell rapidly across the [Kansas City] District 

Dallas — Conditions in the housing market eroded more quickly than anticipated during the reporting period. Sales were off notably from earlier in the year and both online and foot traffic slowed markedly. Cancellations rose in part due to loan-qualification issues. Buyers were hesitant to move forward and were looking for better deals, and builders noted offering incentives again to drive sales. Home prices were largely flat. … Contacts said several new land deals were on pause due to rising uncertainty in the market. Outlooks were negative, and sales and starts expectations were being revised downward. 

San Francisco — Residential real estate activity eased over the reporting period. Supply chain disruptions and rising labor and material costs continued to put upward pressure on housing prices. Sharp increases in mortgage rates, combined with high home prices, cooled-down demand for existing and new single-family homes. Many contacts highlighted a decline in the number of offers sellers received. Inventories remained strained by historical standards, despite an increase in the number of houses available for sale in some regions. Homebuilder confidence declined further, and permit issuance weakened in most of the district. One developer in Alaska reported a considerable decline in speculative construction of housing units and a low supply of seasonal housing. Reports mentioned increasing rents and declining availability of multifamily housing units. 

The post The nation’s housing market is on a correction course appeared first on HousingWire.



Source link


REITs have long been a passive income generator for many who don’t want to deal with the trash, toilets, and tenants that come with rental property investing. No 2 AM phone calls, no listings, no showings, and no sales. With REITs (real estate investment trusts) you simply click a button, buy a share in the company, and wait for your passive income (dividends) to flow into your account. Seems pretty sweet right? Matt Argersinger from The Motley Fool agrees.

Matt isn’t your typical stock investor. He’s owned multiple rental properties and has even house hacked and put in some serious sweat equity. He knows that leverage and forced appreciation are huge wealth builders in the realm of real estate, but still chooses to invest in REITs instead of rentals. Why? Matt is focused more on creating passive income—as in TRULY passive income—no tenant surprises or maintenance calls to make. Matt wants to research, invest, and let his net worth grow, all while still receiving real estate-generated cash flow.

Maybe you’re skeptical. How can passive investing be so easy? If you’re brand new to REITs, Matt does a phenomenal job at explaining what they are, how they work, which types to buy, and what you can do to get started investing today. Regardless of your knowledge of the stock market, if you like income-producing real estate, this episode is for you.

David:
This is the BiggerPockets podcast show 639.

Matt:
REITs are one of the ultimate parts of the stock market where historical performance is a good indicator of future results, even though, of course, we were trained to believe that that could never be the case, but real estate in general is such a steady business. If you think about most REITs, most commercial REITs, they’ve got leases that they’ve signed with tenants that run not your typical rental lease, which is six months, a year, or maybe two years, right? In the commercial world, lease is run five years, seven years, 10 years, even 15 years.

David:
What’s up, everyone? This is David Greene, your host of the BiggerPockets Real Estate podcast. Joining me today is the man himself, Henry Washington, as we interview the Motley Fool’s Matt Argersinger. We talk macroeconomics. We talk real estate investment trusts. We talk stock trading, and we talk how to make it all work together. Henry, first off, how are you? Second off, what were your favorite parts of today’s show?

Henry:
I am doing very well. Thank you for asking, sir. Man, the show was great. Some of my favorite parts of the show where I just liked hearing the perspective of somebody who mainly invests in the stock market, but does own some traditional real estate. You can ask those questions that only somebody who does both would know, right? What’s your favorite strategy? Why one versus the other? What do you like about one versus the other? We have a little bit of a conversation about how he enjoys both of those investment vehicles.
We learn a lot about REITs, and what I really liked and what I really enjoyed was being able to hear how to start not just understanding REITs, but how to start researching them for yourself, and what key metrics to look for when you’re researching them so that if this is something you want to get into, you have a starting point for understanding these things and how to research and understand what’s the best one for you.

David:
This is not a typical Seeing Greene episode. We’re not taking questions from different BiggerPockets members. We’re actually diving deep into a spinoff of what we typically get into. I think a REIT is if a real estate investor and a stock investor had a baby, this is what you’d end up with. It’s definitely a different alternative to invest in real estate, but without the time commitment, without the effort commitment, and getting your feet wet. I think that there’s a place in a lot of people’s portfolios for this.
Henry, you shared a little bit about how you’re venturing into some other investment vehicles, and this is something you’re considering. Is there anything you can share about how you’re venturing out of just traditional real estate investing into other stuff?

Henry:
Absolutely. For me, I am diversifying my investment portfolio. My baby, my bread and butter is always going to be real estate. I’m always going to have most of my net worth tied up in real estate, like physical real estate in some form or fashion, but trying to do as much research as I can about other investment platforms and investment vehicles, and so being able to just spend the last 45 minutes learning from a professional around what real estate investment trusts are, and how to research them and understand them has been super helpful.
So, as the market is shifting, and as we’re producing income from the real estate, I’m just trying to find what are some of the best strategies in order to help get an even higher return on that investment. I like the stock market for some of the same reasons that I like real estate. I mean, we talked a little bit about it. Dividends are phenomenal, right? We get into real estate. A lot of us got into real estate to create passive income. Well, a dividend from a stock is truly passive. You don’t have to do any work to get that paycheck every quarter or every year, depending on the payout schedule of that dividend.
So when you start buying some of these stocks that pay dividends, and you get that truly passive income, it really feels good. You get some of those same warm fuzzies from real estate, and so I really enjoyed this conversation.

David:
If you’re worried about not getting a Seeing Greene episode this week, don’t worry, in a few weeks, we’ll be back with fresh Seeing Greene episodes for you in the traditional style. We just wanted to make sure that we were able to bring Matt in, and get some access to all the knowledge that he’s got. This was a really fun interview, also very insightful. I learned quite a bit more than what I had known before we had it. I think you could say the same, Henry.
Before we bring in Matt, today’s quick tip is check me out on the Motley Fool Money podcast. Just search for David Greene Motley Fool, and you should be able to find an interview where Chris Hill interviews me. We talk macroeconomics. We talk real estate investing, and it’s cool because you get to hear someone who’s not a real estate investor asking a bunch of questions that we hear all the time. You might just find out that you know more about real estate investing than you thought when you get around other people who don’t know it as well.
Check that out, and then let me know in the YouTube comments what you think about how I did. Henry, any last words before we bring in Matt?

Henry:
Yeah, man. Just get ready for some great information. Turn your brain onto the idea of the stock market. I know a lot of real estate Truists are just like, “Yes, real estate, I get the best returns. There are so many other ways to make money,” but try to go into this episode with an open mind, and maybe you’ll learn something that peaks your interest, and you start investing in something that in 10 years you’ll look back and be glad you did.

David:
All right. Let’s bring in Matt. Matt Argersinger, welcome to the BiggerPockets Real Estate podcast.

Matt:
Hey, happy to be here.

David:
I am glad that you’re here. So for those that aren’t familiar with your company and yourself, would you mind giving us a little background on yourself?

Matt:
Sure. Wow. I’m almost embarrassed to say this, but I joined the Motley Fool about 15 years ago, which makes me in full years a dinosaur at the company. I’ve spent most of the 15 years working on the investing side of the company on our various investing services, and spent a lot of time with David Gardner on a lot of his services, and spent some time with him on his podcast and things like that. But for the most part, I’ve been a stock market investor, a real estate investor, and those are my areas of focus at the company, and spent some time on Motley Fool Money podcast as well with Chris Hill on occasion. Love talking to him and talking about investment ideas.
That’s the quick background. I live in Washington D.C. with my wife and a three-year-old son who’s growing way too fast.

David:
I was just on the Motley Fool podcast being interviewed by Chris Hill. I don’t know what show number it is, but if you guys Google David Greene Motley Fool, you should be able to find that episode. We talked about macroeconomics. We talked about trends to look for in real estate. He’s a very smart gentleman. I’m sure that you are too. Also, how old were you when you started at Motley Fool? You look like you could not have worked there 15 years.

Matt:
Oh, well, I was a few years out of school. I’m maybe… Well, I’ll take that as a compliment.

David:
You were that like Doogie Howser. You look like you were 13 years old at a corporate job.

Matt:
No, I’ve just got this… The Zoom or the camera sometimes enhances your image. I just put that to max, so it makes me look 10 years younger.

David:
That is… I came from a background in law enforcement. That was our crew to solving every crime, as you just say, enhance, enhance, and then the camera footage becomes better and better. I would highly recommend anyone having any difficulty in life, the answer is just enhance.

Matt:
Enhance.

David:
All right. How about your own investing portfolio? Can you tell us a little bit about what it looks like, and what you’re interested in?

Matt:
Sure. Well, in addition to being a dinosaur at the Motley Fool, my portfolio tends to be a lot more, I’d say, conservative maybe than the average Motley Fool analyst. In my portfolio, you’ll find a lot of dividend companies. You’ll find a lot of real estate investment trusts, REITs. I like the companies that are profitable, good asset quality, predictable cash flows to the extent that they can pay out dividends, and buy back shares. Not to say I don’t have some companies like Amazon or Alphabet or others that are on the faster growth end of the thing, but that tends to be my focus.
Up to 20%, 25% of my portfolio tends to be in REITs. It’s just because I like that. I like the real estate sector. The historical performance of REITs has been incredible. You invest in an area of the market that not only delivers you great income, but also is much less volatile than the overall market. I tend to lean heavily into that. I like to say I’m, well, a relatively young guy running an old man’s portfolio.

David:
Not bad at all. So for those that are listening that aren’t familiar with what a REIT is, would you mind breaking that down?

Matt:
Sure. Real estate investment trust, they’ve been around for a while. I think Congress commissioned them in the 1960s, early 1960s. The way to think of them is a mutual fund of real estate. They trade in the public markets. You can buy and sell them in your brokerage account. But generally, what you’re buying with a REIT is a company that owns and operates probably a dozen, few dozen or maybe hundreds of properties. You can invest, for example, in an apartment REIT that owns apartment buildings. You can invest in an office REIT.
Wouldn’t recommend that these days, but that owns lots of office buildings. You can invest in hotel REITs, self-storage REITs. There’s just… If you think about real estate as an asset class, you can really invest in many of the different categories underneath that huge sector to include data centers and cell phone towers and various alternative categories of real estate. The brilliance of… I mentioned the historical returns. So if you go back to the early ’70s, so roughly 50 years since the National Association of REITs has been tracking REITs, they’ve delivered about a 13% average annual return, which I think might surprise a lot of people.
That’s about a percentage point higher than the overall stock market measured by the S&P 500 over that same timeframe. It might not seem like a lot, but 1% per year over 50 odd years can really add up in your portfolio. Not only do you get an asset class that’s relatively less risky with more predictable cash flows, high really asset based that pays out generous dividends. You get really outperformance on a total return basis. I love the asset class a lot. I wish more investors would check out REITs. I’ve made them a pretty big part of my portfolio.

David:
How would you describe the difference between a REIT and maybe a syndication where people are pulling their money together to buy a single?

Matt:
Sure. Well, they’re actually similar in a lot of ways, but with a REIT, if you’re looking at a publicly-traded REIT, again, you’re looking at a fairly large enterprise company that’s probably got dozens, again, if not hundreds of properties. With a syndicated pool, or maybe what’s popularly called crowdfunded real estate these days, you’re looking at probably a single asset, private run by a sponsor or an operator that you’re investing alongside with. That can be compelling too. Generally, those are only reserved for… Most of those deals are reserved for accredited investors, and so as a…
Most investors in the market don’t have access to those, but they do have access to REITs of course. I like that asset class as well. It’s something that’s taken off, I guess, over the last decade with the JOBS Act and the various acts that have come out of that. It’s become an interesting way for an investor to get exposure to single asset deals, which I like. You can use a crowdfunding platform, for example, to invest in an office building in Chicago, or an apartment building in Los Angeles, even though you might be on the east coast.
That wasn’t really possible as a real estate investor just 15 years ago. You had to have the right connections. You had to have a lot of money. Nowadays with crowdfunding and syndicated investments, you can invest in those right away. I think if you’re a credited investor, and you have some means, you have to realize that the investment minimums on those can be high like 25,000, 50,000, maybe even $100,000. You got to have some cash, but they can be certainly good deals.

David:
That’s a great description there. I’m curious in your own personal situation. I know you have a couple rental properties, I believe, in the east coast. Why move more of your capital towards publicly-traded REITs as opposed to just getting more rental properties yourself?

Matt:
That’s a great question. Well, I think that comes down to how badly do you want to be a landlord, and to deal with all the issues that come along with that. So if I look back at my own experience, my wife and I, we bought a rowhouse in Washington D.C. shortly after we got married. One of the reasons we did that is because your typical rowhouse in D.C. is actually a duplex. It comes with what they’re called English basement apartments. It’s unique to D.C. and some other cities. You essentially live in the top, or live in the bottom if you want, and you can rent out one of the units.
We couldn’t afford to live in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of D.C. at the time, but we found a way to do it by essentially buying this property, and hacking it up where they… The young people call it these days you’re house hacking. We didn’t know we were doing that at the time. We just bought a duplex, and renting out the other side. It’s a funny story. But one day, my wife happened to be reading an article in the New York Times, I think. This is going back to 2009, and there was an article about a company called Air, Bed, and Breakfast, which of course now we know as Airbnb.
But at the time, I think people called it Air, Bed, and Breakfast. She said, “Wow. instead of doing a full-time rental with our rental unit, we could try this Airbnb thing.” At the time, I think we were one of three units in all of Capitol Hill, in the Capitol neighborhood of D.C. that was doing Airbnb. It was crazy. We listed it, and I think it was like $50 a night. It was really cheap at the time. We booked 100 days in a week. We were like, “This is unbeliev… It’s mind blowing.” Nowadays, if I look at Capitol Hill though, there’s probably, I’m not going to joke, 500 Airbnbs in the neighborhood of this house.
Anyway, so that was our big first step into like, “Wow. Real estate’s a thing.” This was a house we wanted to live in, and just help pay our mortgage. But now, it’s like, “Well, this is interesting to us,” so we made two additional investments later on, bought two more properties, very similar with additional units, did the same thing. Now, we were our own landlords. We were our own property managers. That can be really tough, especially nowadays if I think if I have a kid, and we live outside of D.C. The 2:00 phone call about a toilet not working, or the heat’s gone off, or the AC’s gone off, that has happened multiple times throughout our life is not a joke.
If you’re not a person who wants to deal with those kind of issues, REITs or these private deals are fantastic. Just invest in the equity. Don’t deal with all the headaches.

Henry:
What’s funny is you’ve got this stock portfolio, and then the conservative real estate portfolio as you call it. I would say I’m the exact opposite. I have a healthy real estate portfolio and a very conservative stock portfolio, but it’s super cool to be chit-chatting with you. Because as I was doing my research to ramp up on starting to get into investing in the stock market, investing in some REITs, when I first got started, I read a lot of Motley Fool articles. This is super cool, full sucker stuff for me.
Tell me a little bit about… With you being invested in REITs and other performing assets in the stock market, and having actual physical real estate, there are some other ancillary benefits to real estate. Do you recommend people diversify like you have across both platforms, because you get some of these other benefits from a tax perspective, or you get leverage and appreciation and that kind of a thing, or do you just wish you were all in one, and not the other, now that you’ve seen both?

Matt:
That’s a great question. I think as I’ve gotten older, and your time gets mortified, especially with family, I’m probably in a situation now where I would’ve loved to have sold all our physical real estate properties at the height of this recent market. Missed that badly, of course. But no, I love the question, because there are certainly advantages and disadvantages of both. As you mentioned, with the direct real estate ownership, you actually own the properties yourselves. You’ve got the leverage working for you, so you’ve got…
Assuming you put 20% down or whatever your equity is, you’re generally getting five to one leverage. You can’t get five to one leverage in the stock market, as we know, love to. You get that leverage, but then you also get, of course, the tax benefits, which means you can write off depreciation, which is a big expense. You can write off your operating costs. The real awesome advantage of physical real estate is that generally, they’re run at a loss, right? Anyone who owns real estate probably knows this, but you don’t really make too much money.
You make good cash flow though. But in terms of taxes, you’re almost breaking even in a lot of cases, because when you add in your mortgage costs, your other operating costs, and then you add a depreciation, which is not a… It’s not a cash expense, but it’s a real expense. Generally, in terms of Uncle Sam, you’re pretty much netting zero, even though you’re netting, hopefully, some cash flow, actual cash flow. Then like you said, you also can… If you’re in a market… I’ve been in D.C. for the last 10 years or other markets.
My gosh, if you were investing in Austin, Texas the last 10 years, or name your awesome Sunbelt market like Miami, Tampa, you’ve seen real estate just appreciate double digits a year for years in this incredible bull market we’ve had. On a leverage position, you’re growing the asset value as well. You’re getting cash flow, so direct ownership is awesome if you’re willing to put up with the headaches. I just think as I do get a little older, I’m thinking to myself, “How nice would it be not to have to deal with tenants anymore, not have to file complicated taxes, and literally just have equity and a bunch of different real estate assets, and securities, and collect dividends and distributions, and call it a day?”
I like the fact that we’re diversified, but I certainly… My thinking is definitely evolving as I get older.

Henry:
Yeah, man. It’s always interesting when I talk to people who are more invested in the stock market versus real estate. I always like to try to learn as much as I can about why they’re pouring their money more into one than the other, because everybody’s got that FOMO like, “What should I be looking at coming forward?”

David:
I have a thought on that that I don’t think gets shared enough in our space, because I know there’s some die hard real estate investors that are hearing this, and they’re going, “That 13% return sounds okay, but I got 19%. I’m sticking with what I have.” It was… It hit me like… Maybe everyone else has already thought about this, but it just hit me how few people are thinking this way, that your ROI with traditional real estate investments, long-term rental, short-term rentals, anything is it includes more than just your money.
Your ROI measures money in versus money out. But with real estate investing, there is time. There is risk. There is elbow grease. There is frustration. There is failure. Those of us that love it just assume, “Of course, this is a part of the game,” but there’s other people that don’t love this, that aren’t in love with that. There’s people that make very good money in a medical sales job, or they’re a doctor. They’re a lawyer. They have a great opportunity to earn money, but it requires a lot of their focus. They actually lose money when they invest in real estate, because the return they’re getting takes so much of their time that they’re taking it away from a place they could make more money.
It’s something I realized that a lot of real estate investors don’t understand why people invest in stocks, or in REITs, or in syndications, but it’s because you’re getting a pure ROI. It’s not your time also going into it. Matt, is that a part of your journey that you had a bit of an epiphany with that same concept?

Matt:
It’s a fantastic point. I mean, there’s a lot of things that go into direct real estate ownership that you just don’t measure. Like you said, I mean, you don’t measure the time, even though you can try to, but you don’t really… You don’t measure the time, sometimes the stress, those little trips that you have to take to buy something really quick for the tenant or to fix something. It’s good and bad in a lot of ways. The return on time is not great, and you’re not really measuring the full return that you’re getting from the commitment you’re putting into an actual real estate property, but then you also get…
There’s that cliche sweat equity, which does come into play. I mean, I think of the fact that my… Gosh, YouTube has been a godsend over the last 15 years, but doing things like replacing a kitchen, doing drywall work, learning how to paint fast. I mean, there’s a lot of things you learn, and avoid having to pay a contractor some really expensive amount of money, or, especially these days, trying to find a contractor is just a nightmare. What’s wonderful is real estate, I feel like it’s an entryway point, right? For people who don’t have…
I’m not an engineer. I’m certainly not a doctor. I’m not a scientist. I’m not a software coder. Gosh, I wish I’d done that, but… Real estate was a way for me to enter an asset class, even as a person who didn’t know anything. You can get in there. You can buy properties. You can learn how to do things. There’s some pain involved, but you can make good money if you’re willing to put in the hours, and learn how to do things effectively, and be your own property manager.
It’s not for everyone. Trust me, I love the idea of just not having to deal with hassles, and having a stock portfolio or private equity portfolio that just doesn’t require any of my time. I’m a complete passive investor, but it can be a wonderful way, I think, if you’re someone who just has a lot of maybe soft skills, but you want to get into an investment where you can really lever up and get some nice exposure to do real estate.

Henry:
Let’s talk about a little bit of the elephant in the room, right? 2021, everybody was a genius in real estate and in the stock market, right? Everybody was making money. It was a big party. Now, things are a little different, right? You’ve got the stock markets down. Real estate is changing, definitely changing. The environment is changing. So as someone who has money in both places, how are you maybe changing directions, or are you not changing directions, and why?
I’m like, “How are you preparing for this economic climate as it’s fastly evolving around us?”

Matt:
Great question. Definitely a different world than we were in a year ago. I think, it goes back to, I think, what David asked about earlier, which was the comparing the private syndications to REITs. What’s amazing about, I think, the stock market is that prices and valuations get reflected pretty quickly. A lot of the great REITs that I follow, many that I own, I’ve already been beaten down 30%, 40% to the point where some of their valuations look the best that they’ve looked at in seven, eight, nine years. I’m excited about that.
What I’m seeing on the private side, though, is that you’ve got a lot of stubborn operators who aren’t willing to mark down the value of their real estate, or they’re not willing to underwrite lower exit values for their properties. That happens in private equity, right? It’s not exposed. It’s not repriced every day, just like real estate. Real real estate isn’t repriced every day. Thank goodness, but we know the times are tough. We know interest rates have gone up. We know there’s inflation fears, and so the value of those assets has certainly come down.
You’re already seeing that in a lot of markets, right? What I love about REITs, public REITs is that a lot of those valuations have come down so much though. I’m seeing a ton of opportunity that I didn’t see a year ago. For example, one of my favorite REITs I’m looking at is one called Alexandria Real Estate Equities, ticker ARE. It’s the leading life sciences REITs. Some of their biggest tenants are big drug developers, biotech companies, hospital systems. A year ago, they’re trading probably close to 30 times funds from operations, which is the equivalent PE for REITs, so 30 times, right?
Flash forward to today, they’re at 18 times FFO. That makes me pretty excited. I feel like I’m getting a pretty good value in them. That’s very typical of a lot of REITs right now. The dislocation has happened in the public markets. So if you’re a public market investor, you can take advantage of those. Not so much I think in the real estate side, where in the direct real estate side, where mortgage rates have risen, borrowing costs are a lot higher. It’s harder to get in, or on the private side where, I think, valuations have not adjusted as much.

David:
So as you’re considering investing into a REIT, let’s say someone hears this, and they’re like, “I like that passive income.” This wasn’t mentioned, but I do think that it’s worth considering that these are professional real estate investors that are analyzing these deals at a very high level, that do it all the time, that can put on their little nerd goggles, and look at something that your mom and pop investor, or your short-term rental investor, they just don’t have angles to see. If you’re looking for a safer investment, obviously, there’s nothing guaranteed, but in many ways, a REIT could be a better option than just wandering out and trying it on your own.
What are some things that you’re looking for within an individual REIT?

Matt:
Great question. I think REITs are one of the ultimate parts of the stock market where historical performance is a good indicator of future results, even though, of course, we were trained to believe that that could never be the case, but real estate in general is such a steady business. If you think about most REITs, most commercial REITs, they’ve got leases that they’ve signed with tenants that run not your typical rental lease, which is six months, a year, or maybe two years, right? In the commercial world, leases run five years, seven years, 10 years, even 15 years.
So imagine your REIT, you own property, and you’ve got a tenant there that’s signed a lease for the next 10 years. You have amazing cash flow visibility into that. Also, a great thing is that those leases often come with price escalators, annual price escalators from 3%. Some are linked to CPIs, so they’re even inflation linked. You have an asset that’s incredibly predictable in terms of cash flow. One of the things I look at with REIT is how has this REIT performed historically? Has it delivered a nice total return to investors?
The other thing you can look at is the management team behind the REIT. Unlike a lot of the other sectors of the economy, in REITs, it’s not atypical to find a management team that’s been there for 20, 25 years, or a CEO that’s been with the company since he left college, and is still with the company. If you have a management team in place that’s delivered great returns to shareholders, they’re still involved in the business, because it’s not a business that really gets disrupted like your typical technology stock or software company.
If you have a REIT with a great 10, 15, 20-year track record, it’s highly likely it’s probably going to have a pretty good track record going forward. Then with REITs, one attractive things of course is the dividend. That’s why, I think, most investors think of REITs is because they pay nice dividends, but you need to take a look at the payout ratio, and understand what kind of earnings power the REIT has, where it’s fund from operations, which is the cash flow of the REIT.
Make sure that payout ratio is say… Below 70% is a good threshold. So, if you’ve got a REIT with a good track record, good management team, payout ratio is reasonable, good chance. That’s a good investment opportunity right there.

David:
Well, something you were talking about that I was thinking was a lot of the people that are doing really well, let’s say the short-term rental space. Let’s take Scottsdale Arizona or the Smokey Mountains in Tennessee, really popular areas. If you bought your place in 2019, 2020, you probably paid half of what those are now. Your interest rate was half of what it is now. Those people are crushing it. They’re doing amazing. If you’re trying to get into that market today, it is incredibly difficult, and you’re not going to get the same return.
So with the REIT, part of what’s cool, it would be like buying into someone else’s Scottsdale short-term rental at 2018 or 2019 numbers, right? A lot of those deals that they’ve bought over the years, you are now jumping into that incredible opportunity and the cash flows that they’re receiving, versus trying to get into the market that’s more difficult now. Any thoughts on that?

Matt:
I think that’s a great point. I mean, what your question reminded me of there’s a REIT called Invitation Homes, and the tickers INVH. They fo-

David:
Is that Blackstones?

Matt:
Well, originally, it was owned by Blackstone. It was founded by Blackstones, spun out several years ago. They specialized in single family rentals in a lot of hot markets. Their stock price is down, I want to say, 25% from its high. In a way, if I’m buying invitation homes today, I’m getting exposure to this massive single family rental market at probably, like you said, 2017, 2018 prices, where as an individual, if I go out and try to buy a house in one of those markets, good luck. It’s a lot more expensive and hard to do.

Henry:
Can you talk a little bit about… I don’t know if the right word is mindset, but let me frame it up for you. Then you’ll see where I’m going. As a traditional real estate investor, when we’re buying a property, we’re looking to get it at a good price, where we’re going to get some cash flow, and then hopefully we get some appreciation. But the goal typically for most buy and hold investors is to get in, and then we hold that thing for as long as possible, and reap the benefits for as long as possible. When we’re talking about REITs, how should somebody who may be traditionally looking at owning property who might be interested in now looking into some of these REITs, what’s the mindset you should have as you go into trying to buy into a REIT?
Because with stocks, you can try to buy low, sell high in a month, or you can try to hold it for the long term. You can buy because you like the dividend payouts, and you’re buying for cash flow. What’s that mindset you should have when you’re looking at a REIT versus traditional real estate?

Matt:
It’s hard to do, but if you could have the same mindset that you do with a traditional house or property, that’s the way to go, right? I look at my portfolio. There’s several REITs I’ve owned for over 10 years. That’s because, hey, I like the company. I like the assets. They pay me a nice dividend. That’s grown over time. Why would I sell, right? It’s tempting to go into the stock market, especially for those who haven’t been in the stock market to just go in, buy a bunch, maybe watch the REITs go up 10%, and you’re thinking, “Oh, I’m a genius. I’m going to sell right now, lock in that profit, and I’m good to go.”
The reason I like REITs, especially to have that sort of slower mindset, is because you are buying into something that’s paying you a dividend. By the way, if you can reinvest that dividend, you can grow your stake in that REIT over time, really tax efficiently, and even boost your dividends that way. One of the really underappreciated things about REITs is that because they’re forced to pay out 90% of their pre-tax income as dividends, that way they don’t pay federal taxes.
A lot of investors think that’s a disadvantage, because a REIT can’t retain earnings. It has to always issue new equity or issue debt because it needs to-

David:
I believe isn’t it like 90% of the earnings have to be reissued? Is that right?

Matt:
90% pre-tax has to be paid out as dividends. What I love about that though is it forces REIT managers to be really conscious about the capital they have at the company, and not to do anything silly with shareholder capital. That’s not the case for your typical company that you might have a CEO at a software company or e-commerce company. They’re getting cash. They’re making money, and they’re like, “Well, we’re going to start all these newfangled projects. We’re going to go buy this other company. We’re going to buy the competitor.”
Oftentimes, they end up wasting a lot of shareholder capital. Whereas with a REIT, I get the dividend income myself. I can make the best decision as an investor, what to do with the capital. On the other hand, the CEO of the REIT, the board of the REIT has to make the best decision as well, because they’re paying out, like I said, 90% of their pre-tax income. So in a way, REITs are the ultimate long-term hold investment. I think if you find a good one or two, buy, hold, reinvest the dividends, and you feel pretty good in a bunch of years.

Henry:
I love that, man. I was wanting you to reiterate that for people, because we have… Especially new stock market investors, we get into this idea of trading. The word trading in the stock market tend to be this synonymous thing. That’s absolutely not how you should look at it if you’re going to invest in something that you’re hoping produces a long-term return, especially now, right? I’ve had to just delete the apps, the broker apps off my phone. I don’t want to… I’m buying stocks for the long term, and so you get into this roller coaster of emotions.
It’s best to just have a strategy, whatever that strategy is, as long as it’s an educated strategy, and then you’ve got to force yourself to stick to it. I find it harder to force myself to stick to that strategy when it comes to investing in the stock market, investing in REITs than I do with my traditional real estate, and mostly because they’ve gamified this investing with the apps on your phone, and there’s the bright colors, and it’s super cool. I’ve got to just delete it, set it and forget it, and try not to pay attention to the news.

Matt:
I mean, I think real estate investors should have the best mindset, because you’re used to holding assets that aren’t repriced every day. You’re not trading any out of real estate, so of course.

David:
What’s your thoughts on that, Matt? That’s something I… My thoughts are a lot of people get into day trading. They get sucked into making money through real estate, because it feels good to the ego to be able to say, “This stock went up. This share went up. I did good today.” It gives you that feeling of progress that you did well, but overall to me, it’s bad for your wealth building, because you’re not focused on being productive. You’re looking at something your money already did.
Then when it goes poorly, it impacts you emotionally, and you feel like crap. Now, you don’t want to go work hard to get more money. Are you of the mindset that it’s better to find a way to make investing as boring as possible, and just let it do its thing, or do you think that there’s a place for the people that are micromanaging their individual portfolios?

Matt:
I don’t want to say… I don’t want to make investing in the stock markets sound boring. It can be fun. I mean, I think the most joy I have investing is just learning about a new company, learning about a new REIT, learning about a new industry. If I like it getting some skin in the game, I think that’s exciting. But where you should treat stock investing is watching paint dry, is generally just… That’s the approach you want to take with the stock market, and dividend paying companies and REITs allow you to do that, I think, unlike a lot of other stocks. Because talking about the gamification of it, I might feel good if the stock I own is up 10%, but to me, it’s almost better.
It’s like, “I love when I get the quarterly dividend check.” That’s my ego boost. I’m like, “Oh yeah. This company just wrote me a check.” By the way, sometimes, when they raise the dividend, I’m like, “Oh, I just got a pay raise. This company just gave me a pay raise.” It’s fun to see that cascade, and then the quarterly cash you’re getting from these stocks and REITs to go up over time. It might seem like watching paint dry, but it can be incredibly lucrative.

David:
I think that’s the key is when the check comes in, you can get your excitement from that, right? As a real estate investor, when the cash flow comes in, get excited. Don’t check the price of the house on Zillow three times a day. Did it go up? Did it go… Oh, it went down. This is horrible.

Henry:
My zestimate is crashing.

David:
I saw that.

Matt:
Why is Redfin 5% less than zestimate? Really?

David:
Yeah, and you’re emailing Redfin requesting a new appraisal on your house, because it’s not as high as Zillows is or something. I noticed this with a lot of the crypto investors. There’s some really sad stories of when it tanked recently. Suicides happening, people… horrific, horribly sad stories that people put their identity in their net worth through an asset class that is so volatile. They thought they were a real millionaire, because these assets went up to million. Then when they went down, they absolutely tanked.
I guess that’s what I’m getting at is if you let a rising asset price or your portfolio going up in value make you feel good, you are exposing yourself to the downside where it can also make you feel bad. If you can detach from the outcome, and just say, “Here’s the fundamentals. I’m going to continue to invest based on the research that I did.” I like what you said. Do a lot of research on the paint color. Then once you put it on, just let it dry. Just let it be dry.

Henry:
Watching paint dry can be fun. You get the… It looks different in different lights. You want to let it dry, and see if the color looks [crosstalk 00:38:30] going to look like.

David:
That’s your Arkansas show in there, brother.

Henry:
Oh, sorry. Sorry. Excuse me. We don’t have a lot to do here, so you go down to the Home Depot.

David:
It’s much slower pace over there. I remember when I visited Arkansas, they were really proud of the Bill Clinton library the fact that Derek Fisher was from there. One other thing, what was it? It was Dillard’s. It has their headquarters there. Everyone is very proud of those three things.

Henry:
Yes. We also have Walmart headquartered here, and so you all probably bought something from there recently, so you’re welcome.

David:
[crosstalk 00:38:58].

Matt:
No, I love the point, David, just because what a lot of investors don’t appreciate, especially newer investors, is the downside hurts a lot more than the upside, and various psychologists have written things. I think, Jason Zweig has written about this in the past, but it’s just… I think, losing money on a stock hurts three times as much as the euphoria from gaining 10% on the stock. I mean, especially in crypto, I mean, my goodness, I’m not a crypto investor. I’ve had fun staying poor the last few years, I guess, but it’s an incredibly volatile space.
Now, a lot of these DeFi projects and stuff, you’re layering on leverage to what is already an extremely volatile asset. That’s just… In my boring, old real estate world, you just can’t do that. But man, it can be treacherous.

David:
So when it comes to looking for specific information about REITs, do you have some favorite resources? Is the Motley Fool a good place to go? Is there other places that you recommend people look these up?

Matt:
Sure. If you go to fool.com, there’s a whole… We have real estate as a whole sector there. There’s free articles every day coming out, talking about various REITs or real estate companies. I think one of the best things you can do if you… Go to fool.com. I should do that first, I guess. But second, if you go to a lot of these company’s websites, I mean, just go to… Let’s use an example. Realty Income’s website, ticker O, it’s probably the most well known REIT out there. It’s one of the largest ones. You go to their website.
There’s a huge… There’s great investor relations segment of their website that has presentations that has transcripts from conference calls, and earnings press releases. It has so much great information, and so you can really get to know a company just based on its investing relations site. I think that’s get it right from the source. There’s always usually a section on the dividend history, and how long they paid the dividend, and what the current yield is, and things like that. That’s all. It’s all useful stuff. I don’t know if this is a good opportunity for me to do this or not, but I will go ahead and do it.
There’s a service I run at the Motley Fool called Real Estate Winners. I don’t love the name, so you guys can tell me what you think of the name. Let’s call it Real Estate Winners. When you’re trying to start a service, you have to do a trademark search, and figure out what names you can actually use. That was one name we could use, so we took it. Anyway, so with Real Estate Winners, it’s mostly a REIT-based investing service. It’s a subscription. What we do is we come out with one or two new REIT ideas a month along with a bunch of other content.
If you go to reits.fool.com right now, you can get a nice 20% or 25% discount off the annual subscription fee. We, of course, are publishing research all the time on that service and new ideas as well, so that’s a great… I have to get that plug in.

Henry:
Can you go a layer deeper for us and for those like-

Matt:
Sure.

Henry:
I mean, I love… No, even how simple it sounds like, “You want to know something about somebody. Go to their website.” I get that. But for those of us who are just… There’s just a lot of people who are intimidated by the stock market, and then doing this individual research, because the information’s not all in one consolidated place. So if I’m researching REITs, and I’m going to these websites, what are two to three key metrics I should be looking for at these websites?

Matt:
I think look at a… This is a little bit of an insider metric, but funds from operations, I’ve mentioned it a few times. It’s commonly known as FFO. That is basically the key earnings metric that’s for REITs, because like we talked about with real estate, depreciation’s a major expense. So when your average company reports earnings, it’s usually depreciations in there, but most companies don’t have a lot of depreciation because they’re not asset heavy. They’re not very capital intensive, but REITs, of course, own real estate, and real estate is an asset that you can depreciate over time.
FFO, it takes earnings. It takes out the depreciation adjusts for some other expenses. That gives you good underlying way of looking at a REIT. Has the FFO… What is the FFO per share? What is the price to FFO per share? Has the FFO grown over time? That tells you how REITs earnings are doing. I think looking at the balance sheet is good too. I think something like your debt to EBITDA, for example, with REITs, something that’s… Try to find a REIT that’s say trading for less than seven or eight times debt to EBIDA, gives you good indication that the balance sheet’s probably fine, and the REIT’s not going to run to any financial issues.
Then the other one I mentioned, I think, earlier is the payout ratio. Especially if you’re a dividend focused investor like I am, you want to make sure that the dividend is both sustainable and can be grown over time. If the dividend per share is, say, 70% of the FFO per share, generally, that dividend is going to be fine. If it’s above that number, if it’s above 70%, you have to be a little worried that the dividend could either be cut, or that it could had trouble growing that dividend over time.
I think those are three metrics, and they’re very easy to find. Again, if you go to a REIT’s investor relations website, usually, the earnings release will have those metrics at the very top, and you can figure it out.

David:
What are some things you’ve seen in a REIT where they’ve gone wrong, where it did not perform well, or maybe people might have lost money?

Matt:
Well, one of the big traps that I think investors will get into is there’s a whole class of REITs called mortgage REITs. There are REITs that aren’t backed by real property or assets. There are simply REITs that invest in securities, commercial-backed securities, mortgage securities, or they lend. They do a lot of lending to commercial real estate or residential mortgage borrowers. What’s attractive about those is the yields can be really high. For example, one REIT that comes to mind right now is Armour Residential REIT.
I think the ticker’s ARR, but if you look at that, it has a 16.5% yield on it right now. As a novice investor, I’m thinking to myself, “Whoa, 16.5% dividend yield, dude, sign me up.” But then you look at the long term total returns of that REIT, and they’re abysmal. That’s because essentially what’s happened is the mortgage REIT has not made as much income as it’s paid out in dividends, and so the value of the equity of the company is just steadily declined, and that’s very typical. One of the things I wanted to mention on the show was just that if you’re looking at REITs, pay attention to equity REITs, not mortgage REITs.
Mortgage REITs are a whole different class. They’re much more difficult to analyze. But if you look at equity REITs, you know that the REIT is backed by real estate, and it makes all of its income essentially from real estate operations like rents or other things. That’s one red flag to look for.

David:
Is the play on a mortgage REIT that over time, the amortization schedule starts to favor the company, because the majority of the payments are interests in the beginning? Is that why they’re set up that way?

Matt:
In a way, but a lot of those REITs, they’re not run that way, unfortunately. I like where you’re going there, but no, a lot of these REITs, unfortunately, they’re trading in and out of these securities all the time. They’re buying and selling them. They’re buying them and levering them up in a lot of cases, which is why they can pay out those incredible yields. I have yet to come across a mortgage REIT that I can confidently say, “Yes, this is a…” Even some of the best ones in the industry, that would be like… Starwood’s got a mortgage REIT. Blackstone’s got a couple mortgage REITs, I think.
I’m not going to bet against Starwood Property Trust or Blackstone, but again, even there, the REITs have underperformed over time versus your typical equity REIT. It’s a really different process. I just avoid this space altogether, because why play in a playground that’s tough when I can play in a sandbox that has great opportunities?

Henry:
Yeah, man, as somebody who, again, owns property, is invested in REITs, we talked a lot about how to research some of these REITs. So if I’m a real estate investor now looking to get into REITs, should I focus on looking at REITs that are involved in asset classes that I know, or should I just be looking for opportunity in a REIT like a REIT that’s trading lower than it traditionally has now, and jumping in? Because there’s SPG who’s more commercial, or there’s REITs that do with storage, and there’s REITs that do with single families, like you talked about earlier. So, give us some framework around that.

Matt:
Sure. I’d be very simple. I wouldn’t try to go in, and try to guess which REIT is trading at a low valuation, or which might be the best opportunity. I mean, one easy way to start, if you want, just to dip your toe in would be there’s the Vanguard Real Estate ETF, the ticker’s VNQ. I want to say it’s 95% REITs, and it has some other real estate holdings. That’s a great… It’s got a nice track record. It’s delivered about 9% return since inception over 16 years. The only disadvantage with an ETF generally, including VNQ, is that they’re market cap weighted.
So if you look at it, you’re buying into that what you think is a very diversified ETF, but you’re actually getting tons of exposure to data centers and cell phone tower REITs, which are they happen to be the largest REITs. You’re not getting a lot of diversification in other areas of the market, like you said, self storage or office or apartments. So, my approach when someone asks me like, “How do I start a REIT portfolio?” I would simply go out to the market, again, looking at REITs that have outperformed or delivered nice returns over time.
I would just get a basket in… I’d buy an apartment REIT. I’d buy a hospitality REIT. I’d buy a self-storage REIT, an industrial REIT, which there are many now, and buy a data center REIT as well. So if you got six or seven REITs that you can invest in, it’s a pretty good basket. You can feel confident that I’m not going to try it. I can’t really time when a particular REIT or a particular real estate sector’s going to do well, but at least I get good exposure broadly to the sector.
One area that I’m a little concerned about, two areas probably, but one mainly is office used to be one of the biggest parts of the real estate sector as you can imagine. It’s more than any other part of the market. I think since COVID, it’s the one with the biggest uncertainties, right? There’s just tens of millions of square feet of empty office space right now in a lot of places. That’s either got to be replaced, or it’s got to be sold at bargain prices. A lot of those office REITs are it’s going to be a struggle, I think, for a while.
That might be one area of the REIT market I would avoid. The other one might be traditional retail. Even though I think a lot of those are trading, it’s just really fire sale prices, so you might get some opportunity there.

David:
With your position on the overall macroeconomic situation that the country’s in, I guess I was thinking when you were talking about mortgage back REITs, I don’t know this, but my intuition would tell me that there’s so much capital that has been infused into the market, and these hedge funds like Blackstone have to find something to do with it that they’re like, “Hey, let’s go buy a bunch of paper, because we can get a higher return on it than what we can raise the money at.” Rates were very low. There was tons of capital.
I don’t know this for sure. There’s probably a lot more complication than I’m aware of, but in general, you make decisions that you wouldn’t normally make when there’s so much money, and you have to invest it somewhere. Do you think that some of those asset classes are at risk if we see quantitative tightening take place, or if we have a bit of a reset, and that’s why you’re more towards the equity-based REITs?

Matt:
No, it’s a very good point. I think, as we get higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, I think of course, unfortunately, you’re not going to see the Blackstones of the world go down, obviously, because, like you said, even today, they can borrow rates that are obscene. What you’re seeing, and what I’m already seeing is that you’re seeing a struggle at the smaller operator level. I look at a lot of private equity, real estate companies that are small. They own several properties, or they own maybe 500 apartment units, very small.
They’re the ones who are really taking the brunt, because they can’t borrow at the ridiculously low rates that some of the big institutions can. In a lot of cases, they’re getting high interest rate construction loans, or high interest rate mezzanine loans or bridge loans, trying to do a single development in a city or town, or they’re trying to recapitalize something. You’re going to see the stress there first as always with the smaller players, and you’re seeing that.
With the big REITs, the nice thing about REITs in general right now is REITs have some of the best balance sheets they’ve had in years. They learn their lesson from the GFC 12, 13 years ago when REITs were a lot more leveraged, so a lot of equity.

David:
[crosstalk 00:52:09] financial crisis.

Matt:
Correct. It’s great financial crisis. I shouldn’t assume that people know what that acronym means.

Henry:
I did that.

David:
I was actually shooting from the hip there. I had no idea.

Matt:
No, you nailed it. You nailed it. Great. They learned a lot of lessons back then, and I think they entered this latest crisis with COVID, and now this tightening cycle in much better shape. I’ve a little worry about some of the mostly larger REITs out there in the public space. The smaller private operators are the ones where there’s probably going to be stress.

David:
That makes a lot of sense actually. When it comes to investing strategies with… I mean, obviously, we’ve got a lot of money in circulation, but we also have really high rates. We have a lot of inflation with regular household goods. Things are changing in a pretty quick pace. What’s your thoughts on… Are you leaning more towards defensive-minded strategies where you’re trying to retain wealth you’ve built, or are there opportunities that you think where you can go be aggressive and increase your wealth?

Matt:
Great question. I tend to think steady Eddy through most cycles, right? I mean, don’t change your strategy too much based on what’s happening in the macroeconomy. But I mean, I would say certainly compared to last year, I feel like there were probably more opportunities in the market today, so I am feeling a little more aggressive. I am playing a little offense. I mean, I’m of the mind, how you guys land, but I’m on the mind that we’re probably in a situation where inflation is just about to peak. You’re already seeing a lot of commodity prices roll over.
You’re seeing rents start to flatten out. Housing prices are definitely probably going to come down. We’re probably at that… In terms of the inflation boogeyman, maybe that nightmare is coming to an end. Now, there’s other risks to the economy. We could have a recession. Energy prices are still high. There’s Ukraine, Russia. There’s still supply chains. I mean, there’s just a lot out there right now. But last fall, it was really difficult to find opportunities in the market, and even taking a five-year view, I felt pretty…
My opportunity set was empty. My opportunity set’s fairly good right now, especially if you’re taking the three, four, five-year time horizon. I’d say yeah. I mean, I’m never the guy who jumps in an, dives in and says, “This is the bottom end. We should be buy… I’m buying stocks hand over fist.” But certainly, we’re in the spaces. I look at dividend paying companies’ REITs. I’m seeing some pretty good opportunities.

Henry:
So with real estate, like physical real estate, one of the benefits that we enjoy is the ability to leverage your assets to either reinvest, and go, and buy other assets. Are there ways to do that with REITs specifically or with stocks? What are some other ancillary benefits other than just dividends that a REIT might provide you?

Matt:
Well, I mean, you certainly can’t get to leverage, of course, that you can with direct real estate ownership. With REITs, the benefit is you are… I mean, a, you’re getting a dividend that’s not double taxed, so you’re getting a dividend straight from the companies without them having paid federal income taxes on it. Now, the downside of course is that with REIT dividends, you’re usually paying at your marginal tax rate. It’s not the preferred capital gains rate. REIT dividends are generally not qualified, which is something that a lot of people don’t know.
That’s a downside and a good side though, because generally, you’re getting a higher dividend anyway, even though you’re paying a little bit higher taxes. But no, I think with… You have to remember with REITs, even though as an equity investor in REITs, you’re not getting a lot of those leverage/depreciation/tax advantages bonus, the operators of the real estate are, so the companies you’re investing in are getting those benefits, and it’s resulting in good cash flow and good earnings to you after all those benefits have factored in.

Henry:
That’s a perspective.

Matt:
Right. They’re taking leverage on their side, right? I mean, oftentimes with REITs, just like we take mortgages and houses, they’ve got loans outstanding on their properties, right? So, they are getting leverage returns. What’s fantastic about that is when a REIT signs a new lease, or that lease goes up, or that rent goes up 3%, they’re getting a leverage return on that, and getting that to you. Real estate’s great for turning small returns into great returns using leverage. Even with a REIT, you get it indirectly.

Henry:
Man, I like that perspective. I’ve always… Well, I shouldn’t say I’ve always. Well, since I’ve been building a stock portfolio, REITs have always been interesting to me. I’ve owned a few. I’ve since sold out of them, because I’ve changed my strategy. But what I do like is… I recently had a question from someone who was considering buying a property that essentially was going to break even, or even lose a little bit on the cash flow, but they were still willing to try to purchase this property in order to get in the game.
They were wondering, “Was that the right thing to do or the best strategy?” My thought there was that’s more somebody who probably has some cash on hand, because you’re going to be losing cash every month if you’re not getting cash flow. So, being able to leverage somebody else’s investment in your asset is probably a better use of the money than going ahead and buying something that’s going to be losing. We, at that point, were thinking about like, “Well, you can leverage somebody who has a fund that’s in the asset class.”
But now talking to you, it’s being able to put that into some sort of REIT as well is probably not a bad idea. All that to say, if you’re scared to get in the market, or if you can’t time the market just right right now to buy something, and you’re considering buying something that’s going to… You’re worried about it’s going to lose money. This could be a great option for you to try to research and understand, “Can you buy into a REIT that maybe isn’t trading as it used to?”
You’re taking advantage of somebody else who is a professional investor and who has bought at the right time, and you get a piece of that. I love that perspective.

Matt:
I totally agree with that. I mean, again, as long as you’re investing capital you don’t need right now, and you have a long enough time horizon, it’s a great place to put capital. I certainly… I wouldn’t be the one to rush out just to try to buy a property that was cashflow losing, just because I want to get one. It’s FOMO or whatever you want to say. I would say the REIT would win the battle for me there.

David:
All right. Well, this has been fantastic. I’m having a really good time here. We’re going to move on to the last segment of our show.

Speaker 4:
Famous four.

David:
This is going to be a modified one just for you, Matt. Henry and I will take turns firing questions off at you. Question number one, what is your favorite stock or equity-related book?

Matt:
I don’t know if it’s my absolute favorite, but since it’s appropriate to the topic, there’s a book called Investing in REITs. It’s one of those watching paint dry titles, but Investing in REITs by Ralph Block, who used to be a member of the Motley Fool. Unfortunately, he’s passed away several years ago, but it’s considered the primer on investing in REITs. It’s very easy to read. It’s an awesome…. It can really educate you about the market. I’ve read the book three times actually.
I have a book that’s my version is just scribbled with notes, because there’s just so many good insights that I always go back to. Investing in REITs would be the book.

Henry:
So with this question for real estate investors typically ask what’s your favorite investment book, and everybody always says Rich Dad Poor Dad. What’s the Rich Dad Poor Dad of the stock market world? Is it MONEY Master the Game? What’s that book?

Matt:
Oh gosh.

David:
The Intelligent Investor.

Matt:
I’ve never read it, so it could be. I’m sure you’ve gotten this one, but the Roger Lowenstein biography of Warren Buffet. I think it’s called The Making of An American Capitalist. It’s not so about the stock market. I mean, of course, it’s about Warren Buffet, so it’s about the stock market, but that is probably one of my favorite stock market books. I do love Rich Dad Poor Dad, though. I mean, just to go back to that one, I definitely read that one, and despite whatever Robert Kiyosaki’s become today, I think he wrote one of the best books out there for real estate investors.

Henry:
That’s a fact. All right. Sorry for the deviation. Question number two, what is your favorite focus stock podcast and or episode?

Matt:
Oh gosh. Chris Hill would kill me if I didn’t say Motley Fool Money, right? But okay, that’s boring. I think the Patrick O’Shaughnessy Colossus, family of podcasts, especially he’s investing the best podcast. I go to that pretty often. I think that’s probably my go-to.

Henry:
Awesome. What hobby or skillset do you need to be in the stock market?

Matt:
I think ultimately, you have to have two things. I think you have to be curious, curious about businesses, curious about finances, and then I think you need to have patience, which is so hard. I don’t have it all the time, but I think if you’re a patient person, that’s absolutely the key. You have to have the right emotional mindset to not care what happens in the stock market every day or every month or even every year. It’s just really just investing in great companies, holding them, and being very patient.

David:
All right. In your opinion, what sets apart successful investors from those who give up, fail, or never get started?

Matt:
I think my last answer to the other question might. I’d probably feel the same way. It comes down to emotional fortitude more than anything else. I think that’s what… It’s not who’s smarter, or, I think, who does better research or who’s more diligent. It really comes down to just your emotional fortitude.

Henry:
All right, so where can people find out more about you?

Matt:
All right. Well, you can go to fool.com. I’m also a regular guest on our Motley Fool Money podcast and radio show with Chris Hill. But if you’re interested in really taking a big step into real estate investing in the stock market, you can go to reits.fool.com, and that will give you subscription access to the service I work on called Real Estate Winners. I think there’s a discount there of 25% off the normal price. So if you’re really interested, go to reits.fool.com. Fool.com is just a great place to start, of course, with a whole bunch of free articles on real estate investing, so start there.

David:
Fantastic. Thank you very much for this, Matt. This has been insightful, even a little profound that I would say, and most importantly fun. I can tell that you are a full-time podcaster for a job because you did a great job. We appreciate you being here.

Matt:
Oh, thanks David. Thanks, Henry.

Henry:
Thank you very much.

Matt:
Great time.

David:
This is David Greene for Henry the fifth, wonder of Arkansas, Washington signing off.

 

Help us reach new listeners on iTunes by leaving us a rating and review! It takes just 30 seconds and instructions can be found here. Thanks! We really appreciate it!

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page!

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.



Source link


Guaranteed Rate is looking to diversify its product mix amid the mortgage downturn. The mortgage lender has rolled out its first personal loan product.

Customers can apply for personal loans in 10 minutes and receive funds between $4,000 and $50,000 within hours, the firm said Tuesday. The unsecured loan, which doesn’t have origination fees, late fees, nor non-sufficient funds fees, has flexible repayment options from one to five years, according to Guaranteed Rate. Standard fixed rate loans range from 5.74% APR and 19.99% APR.

“Personal loans are a really smart way for customers to reduce the cost of high-interest credit card debt or to help finance unexpected purchases,” said Anand Cavale, executive vice president and head of unsecured lending product at Guaranteed Rate.

The introduction of a personal loan product follows the hiring of three executives last month, including Cavale, which the firm said was an investment to “rapidly develop end-to-end digital solutions to serve customers across a diverse array of financial products beyond mortgages.” 

The personal loans could also be a good source of leads for mortgages down the road.

Chicago-based Guaranteed Rate this week also rolled out a new underwriting program for its clients to better compete against cash buyers and institutional investors.

Dubbed “PowerBird Approval,” Guaranteed Rate said the program speeds up full underwriting approval to less than 24 hours in some cases, according to the firm.  

“PowerBid Approval’s priority turn times mean borrowers get our fastest approval, often in less than 24 hours,” the company said in a statement. “Less thorough approvals that aren’t fully underwritten often lose out in competitive bidding situations. It’s fast and easy to apply from anywhere, on any device, and a 90-day lock gives borrowers the time they need to find the home they really want.”  

The program requires the customer to provide income, employment, asset and credit, all of which can be digitally validated or sourced from customer documentation for immediate review, said Paul Anastos, chief innovation officer. The approval is completed with an address or after having found a home so customers can compete with cash, he added.

In January, Guaranteed Rate closed its third-party wholesale channel, Stearns Wholesale Lending, a year after it acquired the lender from Blackstone Group. In acquiring Stearns for an undisclosed amount, the company had sought to boost retail loan originations, scale its joint venture platform and develop new multi channel capabilities. 

Guaranteed Rate was the seventh-largest purchase mortgage lender in America in 2021, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. It originated $56.64 billion in purchase mortgages, just behind Rocket Mortgage, the nation’s largest overall mortgage lender.

The post Guaranteed Rate moves beyond mortgage appeared first on HousingWire.



Source link


Non-QM lender First Guaranty Mortgage Corp. (FGMC) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection at the end of June — leaving four warehouse lenders on the hook for more than $415 million.

Sprout Mortgage imploded in early July, leaving its employees out in the cold. The lender so suddenly shuttered its doors it failed to file advanced notice of the layoffs, as required under federal law. It has since been sued by its former employees.

Just weeks later, a leaked text message from Flagstar Bank provided an inside look at how dire the current climate is for many non-QM lenders. The bank calls out 16 non-QM lenders in the text message, indicating it is ramping up scrutiny of its loan reviews, prior to advancing warehouse funding.

The examples, all within about a month, illustrate a non-QM lending world in disarray, turned upside down in recent months as originators battle an unassailable force over which they have no control: fast-rising interest rates. It’s an ongoing battle, which already has been lost by at least two lenders, FGMC and Sprout. 

And others in the sector, warehouse lenders included, must now navigate the fallout, heed the warning signs and take action to avoid a similar fate. One executive said “it would be naïve” to think Sprout and FGMC will be the only casualties, given the current environment. In time, he said, they may well end up being “more of a trend than outliers.”

The Flagstar text message leaked to the media in mid-July confirmed, going forward, funding advances for non-QM mortgages will require advance approval by the lender’s warehouse lending arm. The bank also indicates it may adjust “haircuts” — the percentage of the loan the originator must fund itself to ensure it has skin in the game. 

Thomas Yoon, president and CEO of Excelerate Capital, a full-service non-QM lender, said the move essentially means Flagstar now will “monitor every loan because they don’t want [to fund loans] that will be hard to sell in the open market, and then they’re stuck with that loan.” 

“So, they are going to babysit now,” Yoon said, adding that from a business standpoint, it will slow down the loan originators’ processes. “Someone at Flagstar has to physically look at the deal and make sure it aligns with what they want before they’re able to fund, and that’s going to cause delays.”

Flagstar spokesperson Susan Cherry-Bergesen verified the authenticity of the text message when contacted by HousingWire and confirmed its content: The bank is adjusting its loan-review process. The leaked message included a list of 16 non-QM lenders that would be affected by the changes, according to published reports.

“We were at a meeting with one of our warehouse providers [recently] and … they asked a smart question: “Is Acra Lending on that list?” recalled Keith Lind, CEO of Acra Lending, a leading non-QM lender. “Of course we’re not. 

“…If lenders didn’t take rates up fast enough, or they didn’t liquidate their positions fast enough, there’s going to be warehouse facilities where the loans [made to lenders] are worth less than the equity [skin in the game] that the originator posted. That’s probably a little more common than people think.”

Lind said many lenders are now trying to digest a plethora of lower-rate loans, essentially “orphaned by the market.” During the height of the refi boom and earlier this year, scores of loans were originated at interest rates much lower than current market rates, which have risen dramatically in recent months. 

As a result, there exists a mismatch between those legacy lower-rate mortgages and the new higher-rate loans. That’s the case even though the lower-rate loans are widely considered to be well-underwritten, quality loans. As of mid-July, according to Freddie Mac’s purchase mortgage-market survey, the 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 5.54%, compared with 3.22% as of the first week of January 2022 and 2.88% in July 2021.

The market’s interest rate woes contributed to non-QM lender FGMC’s downfall. FGMC and its affiliate, Maverick II Holdings LLCfiled for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection June 30, leaving four of the country’s major warehouse lenders with claims totaling $418 million, according to court filings.

Those warehouse lenders are Customers Bank, Flagstar Bank, JVB Financial Group and Texas Capital Bank. 

Another non-QM lender also was swept up in the “orphaned” loan market. Sprout Mortgage on July 6 closed its doors suddenly, leaving hundreds of employees without jobs and paychecks. Real estate agents and their clients also received no advance warning and multiple deals fell through as a result, sources told HousingWire. The lender also did not file a WARN Act notice — required of any employer of more than 100 that has a mass layoff at one location involving more than 50 employees.

“The New York State Department of Labor has not received a WARN notice from Sprout Mortgage,” states an email from the department sent in response to a HousingWire inquiry. “We do not comment (confirm nor deny) on potential or pending investigations.”

The failure to provide proper notice of the layoffs prompted a class-action lawsuit by former Sprout employees. The litigation — lodged in early July in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York — seeks to recover wages due the workers.

The current interest-rate spread pressure-cooker tends to be even more acute in the non-QM sector, compared with the prime-mortgage market, according to John Toohig, managing director of whole loan trading at Raymond James in Memphis.

“[There’s] a lot of underwater coupons due to rapidly rising rates,” Toohig said. “The problem with non-QM is that most banks won’t be the liquidity source for those loans in whole-loan form [purchasing] vs. the aggregators putting them into RMBS [private label securitization deals] — which doesn’t work right now [either].

“So, I wouldn’t be surprised that there is some pain coming at the warehouse-line level [revolving lines of credit used to fund mortgage originations] as loans start to age. The good news for prime jumbo [is] banks want to own those loans and balance-sheet them. The same cannot necessarily be said for non-QM.” 

Non-QM mortgages include loans that cannot command a government, or “agency,” stamp through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The pool of non-QM borrowers includes real estate investors, property flippers, foreign nationals, business owners, gig workers and the self-employed, as well as a smaller group of homebuyers facing credit challenges, such as past bankruptcies. 

Because non-QM, or non-prime, mortgages are deemed riskier than prime loans, in a normal market they generally command an interest rate about 150 basis points above conforming rates, according to Excelerate’s Yoon.

Excelerate and Acra each raised rates rapidly starting early in the first quarter of this year to stay ahead of the fast-rising interest rate curve, according to Yoon and Lind. The rapid surge in rates in the market is being fueled, in part, by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing benchmark rate bumps, intended to battle inflation. The consequence of failing to anticipate the velocity of rate increases could result in a lender getting stuck with millions of dollars in underwater loans — mortgages that are well-underwritten but valued under par, the lending executives said. 

In other words, these lower-rate — now “scratch and dent” — loans are at a competitive disadvantage in terms of pricing in securitization and loan-trading liquidity channels because they are worth less than the newer crop of higher-rate mortgages. Lind put it this way: “These aren’t bad loans, just bad prices.”

“I don’t think [Sprout and FGMC] are the only two lenders that are in a bind,” Lind said. “I’m sure there’s other originators that are in difficult situations, given this movement in rates and probably their inability to get liquidity or to sell loans fast enough.”

Yoon said the Sprout and FGMC failures are likely going “to be more of a trend than outliers.”

“A lot of lenders took on, or funded, these really low-coupon loans,” Yoon continued. “And they probably had them sitting in their gestation pipelines thinking that the things will get better, and they could sell them off. That day never came.

“What I’ve been told through warehouse lenders and Wall Street aggregators is that there’s several billion dollars’ worth of these [low-coupon] loans out there, still sitting on balance sheets. At some point, they [lenders] will have to pay the piper, right? It’s naive to assume we’re not going to see more casualties.”

***

Q&A

HousingWire contacted half a dozen non-QM lenders seeking interviews for this story, including Angel Oak Cos., Deephaven MortgageCarVal InvestorsVerus Mortgage CapitalAcra Lending and Excelerate Capital. All the lenders, as well as the now-failed Sprout Mortgage, participated in a prior story on the same subject — the state of the non-QM market, which was published in April. 

This time around, only Acra and Excelerate agreed to participate. Representatives of the other lenders declined to comment or make executives available for an interview, with most saying the executives didn’t have time. The top executives at Acra and Excelerate, Lind and Yoon, respectively, each declined to comment on specific competitors in the non-QM market, but they did share their views on current market conditions and the challenges faced today by non-QM lenders in general.

Lind and Yoon stressed they are not predicting with certainty other non-QM lenders will fail, nor do they hope that will be the case. Both, however, predict due to the runup in rates, there will likely be painful losses incurred by some non-QM lenders, which will have to be dealt with somehow.

All non-QM lenders now face the same economic challenge — coping with the fallout from interest rates rising at a faster clip than the market has seen in decades. Following are comments from Acra’s Lind and Excelerate’s Yoon on a range of issues affecting the non-QM lending space.

Interest Rates

We saw the market [earlier in the year] and knew it would only get worse, at least in the short-run, and we put our rates above market at that time sharply. …We’re positioned really well to navigate the current market. That doesn’t mean it’ll be easy, but you know, we’re positioned better than most, so we feel fortunate about that. … When we raised our rates that significantly in the first quarter, it essentially blew up our pipeline in the short-run, but we felt like we needed to do that. …Going into October, November, December [of last year] and into January [2022], everyone was thinking, including us, that we’re going to have a banner 2022. Then the market changed on us overnight. There was only a handful of us that that made the move [to raise rates sharply], and they are positioned well going forward. — Thomas Yoon of Excelerate Capital

We’ve moved rates 18 times in 2022 [to date] — mostly up, with maybe one or two down. Listen, everyone’s got a different execution or [liquidity] outlet. I can just tell you that we’re breaking even or making a little bit of money in the first few quarters [of this year], and our rates are higher than others. I don’t know how some of these other people [lenders] have been able to do it. But if they have, then kudos to them. …You’ve probably heard this before: Don’t fight the Fed [the Federal Reserve]. The Fed is bigger than everyone. Well, guess what? So is the housing market, and you don’t fight the housing market. Everyone’s like, “Oh, I’m going to keep rates low because I need market share.” I think it’s always better to be prudent and pay attention to rates. It’s not a race [or sprint]. This is a marathon to be successful in this business. That’s the way we look at it. — Keith Lind of Acra Lending

Warehouse Lenders

The biggest problem in non-QM right now is the fear of liquidity, right? It’s whether they’re able to sell off their closed loans. If they don’t, then it becomes a burden and a debt. The biggest, I think, challenge that these non-QM platforms face — outside of what’s happening in the market — is will they maintain a stable relationship with their warehouse lines. …I expect lower limits in warehouse funding capabilities and more haircuts, so that they [warehouse lenders] feel that they’re protected. Oftentimes, warehouse divisions are a real profit-maker for banks, but we’re going through a cycle change, and originations have dropped 40-plus percent nationally. It means that everyone’s taken a hit. …Most warehouse lenders are banks and, of course, they’re feeling it too.  Yoon of Excelerate Capital

Regional banks [who are warehouse lenders] have a lot more exposure now and could be holding loans that are underwater. I’ve heard some of them are comfortable with the risk, and they’ll just wind down these positions over time. It’s still a good return for the bank. Others are looking for exit strategies. … Some of these regional warehouse lenders may ultimately do a full turbo feature where they collect all interest and principal, and the originator gets nothing. It’s going to be harder for the little guy [smaller originators] to come back because warehouse providers, as well as people that are lending money [generally], are going to demand more capital. — Lind of Acra Lending

Raising Capital

If you’re a [non-QM] executive and have a $300 million negative on the balance sheet [due to underwater loans], any company that’s going to provide capital is going to question whether [the leadership of the lender] knows how to run a mortgage-banking platform in this marketplace. …It’s not like they will be using that capital to build technology or to hire more great talent or [launch] a new system. To be clear, it’s to make themselves whole, right? That’s a tough, tough sell in today’s market. — Yoon of Excelerate Capital

You don’t throw good money after bad, right? — Lind of Acra Lending

Market Share

We took flack for raising our rates and recalibrating ourselves. A lot of our competition, for example, kept their rates really low and kept them low for all of the first quarter. They took on a massive risk, and their logic was that the market will turn for the better … and they’ll be able to sell these [loans] off at a profit, instead of just breakeven. They looked at it as an opportunity to gain market share. Everyone that did that, you know, they were wrong. — Yoon of Excelerate Capital

The originators that have made it through the first two quarters in [good] financial shape absolutely I would expect all of us to gain market share. There are going to be [originators] that go out of business, as we’ve seen, and they’re probably not the last, and then others are probably going to struggle. — Lind of Acra Lending

Survival Strategies

Our liquidity channels are still really viable. We have strong relationships with our aggregators and outlets. We’re very fortunate, but we also recognize how volatile [this market] is. We have to be nimble. So, we have a plan A, but we also have plan B and C ready, just in case. …The market is moving so quickly, so we’re shooting higher [on rates] than we normally would to make sure that the collateral bought is worth something when they securitize it — [a process that can take months]. The dramatic move [in rates] that we saw in the first quarter and second quarter, I don’t think it’s going to be that exaggerated [going forward], but we’re constantly chasing the bogey here, so to speak. — Yoon of Excelerate Capital

There are three aspects that we focus on. First of all, we focus on rates. And I told you, we’ve moved rates 18 times since January 3. We were at a 4.5% coupon, and now we’re low 8% [range] in terms of where our portfolio is. …Two is liquidity. If you don’t have strong liquidity, and you’re not getting off loan sales fast enough and at the [right] prices, that’s going to be difficult. So, rates, liquidity and then lastly operational expenses. Are you managing your expenses? We took our headcount from 450 down to 350. We did that two months ago. And we’re still looking at that, to make sure that that we are managing expenses and salaries. We’ve not only reduced headcount, but we’ve made adjustments to salaries. — Lind of Acra Lending

Downturn Duration

We’re going to go into a recession — if we’re not already in it right now. I hope that it’s a mild recession. We’re prepping as if this is going to be a 12- to 24-month downcycle for us as an industry. If it [ends] earlier, we look at that as very fortunate. But we anticipate that this year and the bulk of next year is going to be trying times for us. We’re taking a very conservative approach. — Yoon of Excelerate Capital

I’m going to take the view that until we have a better understanding of where we are with inflation and taming it, that this market is going to be choppy. And when the overall market has a more comfortable understanding of where inflation is, and that it’s under control, I would think that things will fall back into order. …There’s still a lot of tailwinds in the housing market, however. We’re short [some] 5 million homes [in the housing market], and I think from an investor perspective, depending on the price and the homes picked, there’s good cash flow every month. I think that’s why you’re seeing more and more people, as far as mom-and-pops [small landlords, who are non-QM borrowers] getting into the housing market as opposed to the equity market moving forward. I like the tailwinds in housing, for sure. — Lind of Acra Lending

The post Non-QM lenders are racing to stay ahead of rates appeared first on HousingWire.



Source link


15% ROI”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/large_Extra_large_logo-1.jpg”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”SFR, MF & New Builds!”,”body”:”Invest in the best markets to maximize Cash Flow, Appreciation & Equity with a team of professional investors!”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/renttoretirement.com\/”,”linkTitle”:”Contact us to learn more!”,”id”:”60b8f8de7b0c5″,”impressionCount”:”184440″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”955″,”impressionLimit”:”350000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1040″},{“sponsor”:”Azibo”,”description”:”Smart landlords use Azibo”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Logo-512×512-1.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”One-stop-shop for landlords”,”body”:”Rent collection, banking, bill pay and access to competitive loans and insurance – all free for landlords.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.azibo.com\/biggerpockets\/?utm_source=biggerpockets&utm_campaign=biggerpock ets&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_content=blog”,”linkTitle”:”Get started, it\u2019s free”,”id”:”618d372984d4f”,”impressionCount”:”255966″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”547″,”impressionLimit”:”300000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:0},{“sponsor”:”The Entrust Group”,”description”:”Self-Directed IRAs”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/TEG-Logo-512×512-1.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Spring Into investing”,”body”:”Using your retirement funds. Get your step-by-step guide and learn how to use an old 401(k) or existing IRA to invest in real estate.\r\n”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.theentrustgroup.com\/real-estate-ira-report-bp-awareness-lp?utm_campaign=5%20Steps%20to%20Investing%20in%20Real%20Estate%20with%20a%20SDIRA%20Report&utm_source=Bigger_Pockets&utm_medium=April_2022_Blog_Ads”,”linkTitle”:”Get Your Free Download”,”id”:”61952968628d5″,”impressionCount”:”392288″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”517″,”impressionLimit”:”600000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:0},{“sponsor”:”Steadily”,”description”:”Best-Rated Landlord Insurance\r\n”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/STEADILY.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Fast, Affordable Landlord Insurance”,”body”:”Affordable insurance for rental properties of all kinds, including fix n\u2019 flip. Multi-property discounts available. \r\n”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/bit.ly\/3FUfGgE”,”linkTitle”:”Get a free quote today”,”id”:”61a51c5a6182e”,”impressionCount”:”145911″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”643″,”impressionLimit”:”390000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”3250″},{“sponsor”:”Guaranteed Rate”,”description”:”One-Stop Mortgage Lender”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/927596_CB_BiggerPockets-January-2022-Assets-512×512-1.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”$1,440 Mortgage Savings*”,”body”:”Whether you\u2019re buying new or cash-out refinancing to upscale the old \u2013 get started today and we\u2019ll help you save!\r\n\r\n”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.rate.com\/biggerpockets?adtrk=|display|corporatebenefits|biggerpockets|july2022_blog||||||||||&utm_source=corporatebenefits&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=biggerpockets&utm_content=july2022-blog “,”linkTitle”:”Buy or Cash-Out Refi”,”id”:”61ccd6a886805″,”impressionCount”:”88349″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”449″,”impressionLimit”:”200000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”2222″},{“sponsor”:”Roofstock”,”description”:”Real estate investing”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/roofstock1644.jpeg”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”SFR Marketplace”,”body”:”Build wealth through single-family rental (SFR) investing. Roofstock makes it radically accessible.\r\n\r\n”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.roofstock.com\/bp”,”linkTitle”:”Visit the Marketplace”,”id”:”6217d101980a8″,”impressionCount”:”131008″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”453″,”impressionLimit”:”490000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1633″},{“sponsor”:”Roofstock One”,”description”:”Meet the SFR asset class”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/MicrosoftTeams-image-2.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Expand your portfolio”,”body”:”Accredited investors: Access investments in the single-family rental (SFR) sector\u2014no property management required. “,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.roofstock.com\/one?utm_campaign=BiggerPockets-Podcast&utm_source=sponsorships&utm_medium=podcast”,”linkTitle”:”Explore Roofstock One”,”id”:”6217fa9c588dd”,”impressionCount”:”136438″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”485″,”impressionLimit”:”490000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1633″},{“sponsor”:”Stessa, a Roofstock company”,”description”:”Keep your houses in order”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/MicrosoftTeams-image-3.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Track properties for free”,”body”:”Manage and report on your investment properties with asset management software purpose-built for real estate investors.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.stessa.com\/bp”,”linkTitle”:”Claim your free account”,”id”:”6217fa9c6258f”,”impressionCount”:”145081″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”501″,”impressionLimit”:”490000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1633″},{“sponsor”:”BAM Capital”,”description”:”Multifamily Syndicator\r\n\r\n”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Bigger-Pockets-Forum-Ad-Logo-512×512-2.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”$100M FUND III NOW OPEN”,”body”:”Earn truly passive income with known assets in an award-winning market. Confidently targeting 2.0x-2.5x MOIC.\r\n\r\n\r\n”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/capital.thebamcompanies.com\/offerings\/?utm_source=bigger-pockets&utm_medium=paid-ad&utm_campaign=bigger-pockets-blog-feb-2022&utm_content=fund-iii-now-open”,”linkTitle”:”Learn more”,”id”:”621d250b8f6bd”,”impressionCount”:”114442″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”315″,”impressionLimit”:”150000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”2500″},{“sponsor”:”Concreit Real Estate Investing”,”description”:”Easy property investing”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/concreit-app-icon-512×512-1.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Supercharge your wealth “,”body”:”Join over 30,000 smart investors & Invest in tomorrow with a fully managed & transparent private real estate portfolio.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/concreit.com\/biggerpockets?utm_source=biggerpockets&utm_medium=cpm&utm_campaign=blog-biggerpockets-2022-mar”,”linkTitle”:”Put Concreit to work for you”,”id”:”621e45494174c”,”impressionCount”:”96819″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”323″,”impressionLimit”:”100000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”3225″},{“sponsor”:”Walker & Dunlop”,”description”:” Apartment lending. Simplified.”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/WDStacked512.jpg”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Multifamily Property Financing”,”body”:”Are you leaving money on the table? Get the Insider\u0027s Guide.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/explore.walkerdunlop.com\/sbl-financing-guide-bp-blog-ad”,”linkTitle”:”Download Now.”,”id”:”6232000fc6ed3″,”impressionCount”:”114316″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”370″,”impressionLimit”:”200000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”6500″},{“sponsor”:”SimpliSafe Home Security”,”description”:”Trusted by 4M+ Americans”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/SS-Logo-.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Security that saves you $”,”body”:”24\/7 protection against break-ins, floods, and fires. SimpliSafe users may even save up to 15%\r\non home insurance.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/simplisafe.com\/pockets?utm_medium=podcast&utm_source=biggerpockets&utm_campa ign=2022_blogpost”,”linkTitle”:”Protect your asset today!”,”id”:”624347af8d01a”,”impressionCount”:”84685″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”379″,”impressionLimit”:”200000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”2222″},{“sponsor”:”Delta Build Services, Inc.”,”description”:”New Construction in SWFL!”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Image-4-14-22-at-11.59-AM.jpg”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Build To Rent”,”body”:”Tired of the Money Pits and aging \u201cturnkey\u201d properties? Invest with confidence, Build To\r\nRent is the way to go!”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/deltabuildservicesinc.com\/floor-plans-elevations”,”linkTitle”:”Look at our floor plans!”,”id”:”6258570a45e3e”,”impressionCount”:”75314″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”387″,”impressionLimit”:”160000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”2163″},{“sponsor”:”RentRedi”,”description”:”Choose The Right Tenant”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/rentredi-logo-512×512-1.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Best App for Rentals”,”body”:”Protect your rental property investment. Find & screen tenants: get full credit, criminal, and eviction reports.”,”linkURL”:”http:\/\/www.rentredi.com\/?utm_source=biggerpockets&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=BP_Blog.05.02.22&utm_content=button&utm_term=findtenants”,”linkTitle”:”Get Started Today!”,”id”:”62740e9d48a85″,”impressionCount”:”59355″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”399″,”impressionLimit”:”150000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”5556″},{“sponsor”:”Masterworks”,”description”:”Invest in blue-chip art.”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/logo_monogram-01-1.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Where to invest $100k?”,”body”:”Where to invest 100k? Bloomberg experts overwhelmingly recommend art. Sound crazy? It outpaced the S&P 500 by 164% from \u201895 to \u201821.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.masterworks.io\/?utm_source=biggerpockets&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=5-17-22&utm_term=Bigger+Pockets+Readers&utm_content=blog+100k”,”linkTitle”:”Learn more here”,”id”:”627d206a826c5″,”impressionCount”:”48853″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”464″,”impressionLimit”:”50000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1064″},{“sponsor”:”PadSplit”,”description”:”Co-Living Marketplace”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Picture1.jpg”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Double your cash flow”,”body”:”Join hundreds of investors on the largest co-living marketplace. Improve your return and help the housing shortage.”,”linkURL”:”http:\/\/www.padsplit.com\/biggerpockets?utm_campaign=H-Host_Content&utm_source=Biggerpockets&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=bp_blog&utm_term=hyperlink-landing_page”,”linkTitle”:”Get a Free Consultation!”,”id”:”628e464abfe5f”,”impressionCount”:”42500″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”434″,”impressionLimit”:”50000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1667″},{“sponsor”:”Guaranteed Rate”,”description”:”One-Stop Mortgage Lender”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/GR-512×512-1.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”$1,440 Mortgage Savings”,”body”:”Whether you\u2019re buying new or cash-out refinancing to upscale the old \u2013 get started today and we\u2019ll help you save!”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.rate.com\/biggerpockets?adtrk=|display|corporatebenefits|biggerpockets|july2022_blog||||||||||&utm_source=corporatebenefits&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=biggerpockets&utm_content=july2022-blog%20%20%20″,”linkTitle”:”Buy or Cash-Out Refi”,”id”:”62ba1bfaae3fd”,”impressionCount”:”15628″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”336″,”impressionLimit”:”70000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”761″},{“sponsor”:”Avail”,”description”:”#1 Tool for Landlords”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/512×512-Logo.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Hassle-Free Landlording”,”body”:”One tool for all your rental management needs — find & screen tenants, sign leases, collect rent, and more.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/www.avail.co\/?ref=biggerpockets&source= biggerpockets&utm_medium=blog+forum+ad&utm _campaign=homepage&utm_channel=sponsorshi p &utm_content=biggerpockets+blog+ad+fy23+1h”,”linkTitle”:”Start for FREE Today”,”id”:”62bc8a7c568d3″,”impressionCount”:”17124″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”343″,”impressionLimit”:”200000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1087″},{“sponsor”:”Steadily”,”description”:”Easy landlord insurance”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/facebook-business-page-picture.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Rated 4.8 Out of 5 Stars”,”body”:”Quotes online in minutes. Single-family, fix n\u2019 flips, short-term rentals, and more. Great prices and discounts.”,”linkURL”:”http:\/\/www.steadily.com\/?utm_source=blog&utm_medium=ad&utm_campaign=biggerpockets “,”linkTitle”:”Get a Quote”,”id”:”62bdc3f8a48b4″,”impressionCount”:”18058″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”330″,”impressionLimit”:”200000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”1627″},{“sponsor”:”MoFin Lending”,”description”:”Direct Hard Money Lender”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/mf-logo@05x.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Flip, Rehab & Rental Loans”,”body”:”Fast funding for your next flip, BRRRR, or rental with MoFin! Close quickly, low rates\/fees,\r\nsimple process!”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/mofinloans.com\/scenario-builder?utm_source=biggerpockets&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=bp_blog_july2022″,”linkTitle”:”Get a Quote-EASILY!”,”id”:”62be4cadcfe65″,”impressionCount”:”21026″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”345″,”impressionLimit”:”100000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”3334″},{“sponsor”:”REI Nation”,”description”:”Premier Turnkey Investing”,”imageURL”:”https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/REI-Nation-Updated-Logo.png”,”imageAlt”:””,”title”:”Fearful of Today\u2019s Market?”,”body”:”Don\u2019t be! REI Nation is your experienced partner to weather today\u2019s economic conditions and come out on top.”,”linkURL”:”https:\/\/hubs.ly\/Q01gKqxt0 “,”linkTitle”:”Get to know us”,”id”:”62d04e6b05177″,”impressionCount”:”5400″,”dailyImpressionCount”:”707″,”impressionLimit”:”195000″,”dailyImpressionLimit”:”6360″}])” class=”sm:grid sm:grid-cols-2 sm:gap-8 lg:block”>



Source link


Recent pleadings filed in the bankruptcy case of First Guaranty Mortgage Corp. (FGMC) show the lender left its warehouse lenders holding the bag for a mound of debt. 

FGMC and its affiliate, Maverick II Holdings LLC, on June 30 filed to reorganize under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Pleadings filed in the case — now pending in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware — show the lender owes more than $400 million to four warehouse lenders, which include Customers Bank, Flagstar Bank, Texas Capital Bank and J.V.B. Financial Group LLC

“With respect to nonagency loans and non-QM loans, warehouse lenders will finance between 90% and 95% of the original principal amount of the loan, which requires [FGMC] to use working capital to fund the remaining portion of the principal balance of the mortgage loans,” states a declaration filed with the court by FGMC CEO Aaron Samples. “As of the petition date [June 30], the debtors [FGMC and affiliates] estimate that they collectively owe the warehouse lenders approximately $418 million.”

Samples reveals in his declaration that FGMC was hemorrhaging cash just prior to filing for bankruptcy protection — posting a $23.3 million after-tax loss over the four months ending April 30. He also contends in his court pleadings that the amounts advanced under the warehouse lines are secured by “mortgage loans, cash and related collateral.”

“Obligations to Customers Bank are further secured by a cash reserve account and related collateral,” Samples court pleadings add. “Further, a portion of [FGMC’s] obligations to Customers Bank, not to exceed $25 million, is subject to a full recourse guarantee….”

FGMC also owes $18.4 million to a bridge lender that is described in court filings as “an indirect subsidiary of a private investment firm managed by Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO)” — which is a large investment management firm that in 2015 purchased a stake in FMGC. That debt is listed as secured debt.

In addition, FGMC in court pleadings indicates that it has about $37 million in unsecured debt, “including trade debt and payables, amounts owed to former and current employees, and a $25 million fully-drawn line of credit with Customers Bank.”

Customers Bank, in a motion filed with the bankruptcy court, explains that it is party to “two financing arrangements” with FGMC. One is the warehouse line — set up to facilitate FGMC’s funding of mortgage loans. The other is a separate “revolving credit facility” provided to FGMC for “working capital.” 

Although Sample’s declaration lists the fully-drawn $25 million line of credit as unsecured debt, Customers Bank’s pleadings allege that both the warehouse and the working-capital lines of credit are secured by collateral.

Another warehouse lender, Flagstar Bank, also alleges in pleadings filed with the bankruptcy court that FGMC owes it a tidy sum on a secured warehouse line with the bank.

“As of the petition date, there were approximately 161 pledged mortgage loans originated, funded or acquired, in whole or in part, by FGMC through advances under the Flagstar loan agreement,” a bankruptcy court filing by Flagstar states. “Approximately $50 million remains outstanding under the Flagstar loan agreement [the warehouse line of credit], exclusive of interest, fees and other costs, including curtailment charges that continue to accrue.”

Both Flagstar and Customers Bank also have filed motions with the bankruptcy court objecting to parts of a recent FGMC motion. Those pleadings, among other requests, seek court approval for FGMC to obtain post-bankruptcy warehouse financing (called debtor-in-possession, or DIP, financing).

The rub, however, is that FMGC is asking the court to give the provider of that DIP financing “super-priority [status] ahead of all other creditors, including pre-petition secured creditors,” such as Flagstar and Customers Bank, court pleadings filed by Customers Bank allege.

A hearing on the matter has been set for July 28 in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware in Wilmington, according to the bankruptcy court docket for the case.

In a related matter, a lawsuit that seeks class-action status has been filed by former FGMC employees against the lender. The litigation seeks backpay and other relief on behalf of former FGMC employees who were laid off by the lender without notice in late June, in alleged violation of the federal WARN Act.

“Plaintiffs [employees] were terminated along with approximately 470 similarly situated employees as part of … mass layoffs or plant closings ordered by [FGMC leadership] on June 24, 2022,” state pleading filed in late June in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. “[FGMC] failed to give [employees] … at least 60 days’ advance notice of their terminations, as required by the WARN Act.”

The post Warehouse lenders stung by FGMC’s bankruptcy appeared first on HousingWire.



Source link


Home listings grew, credit scores improved and tappable home equity increased in the second quarter of 2022 from the first quarter. Those the three areas represent an opportunity for lenders grappling with a deeply challenging mortgage market, Sales Boomerang said in its second quarter mortgage opportunities report.

Sales Boomerang reviewed data from more than 170 residential mortgage lenders that use its platform to monitor millions of customer and prospect records. The mortgage tech firm then calculated and compared the aggregate frequency with which those contact records triggered loan-opportunity, prescriptive-scenario and risk-and-retention alerts during the first and second quarters of 2022.

“New home listings and cash-out alerts both trended upward in the second quarter, making purchase and home-equity products smart areas of investment for lenders as they prioritize assignment of limited resources,” said Mike Spotten, executive vice president of product at Sales Boomerang. 

Of the total monitored contacts, about 1.44% of contacts were new listing alerts, up 69% from the first quarter. More than 4% of monitored contacts were credit improvement alerts, an increase of more than 130% from the previous quarter. 

The significant quarter-over-quarter increase illustrates that Americans’ overall financial status was improved by pandemic-related fiscal measures, including government stimulus payments, tax credits and student loan moratoriums, the report said. 

Meanwhile, the second quarter saw a decline in mortgage inquiry alerts, rate alerts, and rate-and-term alerts, a predictable result at a time when interest rates are discouraging rate shopping and refinances.

The mortgage inquiry alert was down 28.6% from the first quarter and rate alert dipped 40%. Rate-and-term alerts also fell 49% in the second quarter from the previous quarter. 

As a result of rising interest rates, the value of mortgage servicing rights continues to grow. The report added: lenders must carefully weigh the pros and cons and potential balance sheet impacts of retaining versus selling mortgage servicing rights. 

Last week, mortgage application volume reached the lowest level since 2000 due to a weakening economic outlook, high inflation and affordability challenges, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said. 

According to MBA, the overall mortgage production in the U.S. is expected to drop more than 40% this year from 2021. Of the $2.4 trillion origination volume expected in 2022, only $730 billion, about 30% of the total origination, are projected to account for refis.

The post In a bad mortgage market, these are areas of opportunity for lenders appeared first on HousingWire.



Source link


The savagely unhealthy housing market is continuing as we get closer to August. But, there is one bright spot — inventory is rising.

We still have the unhealthy dynamics of noticeable sales declines, but prices are still growing year over year. This has been a concern of mine after the summer of 2020 as inventory levels were breaking all-time lows, facilitating unhealthy home price growth during a more prominent demographic patch in U.S. history. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell last month while prices increased yearly.

According to NAR, existing-home sales declined for the fifth straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million. Sales were down 5.4% from May and 14.2% from one year ago. And, the median existing-home sales price climbed 13.4% from one year ago to $416,000, a new record high.

The one positive: Inventory is rising

The one positive aspect of this report is that inventory is rising, which every American should be rooting for, because what we have experienced since 2020 was a historical housing inflation event. I have been talking about the range of inventory that I need to see to remove the ‘savagely unhealthy’ housing market theme. Once total inventory levels reach 1.52-1.93 million, we will be in a much better place for housing. 

NAR total inventory data going back to 1982

Today’s report did show growth, which is the best part of the report, and let’s all hope for more inventory in 2023! A boring and balanced (B&B) housing market is the best housing market.

@NAR_Research

Total housing inventory registered at end of June was 1.26 M units, an increase of 9.6% from May and a 2.4% rise from the previous year (1.23 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at current sales pace, up from 2.6 months in May and 2.5 months in June ’21. #NAREHS
     

Here is the total inventory data updated with today’s report 1,260,000. I will be relieved once we can touch the 1,930,000 level. As long as rates stay high, we can get there next year.

Since the summer of 2020, I have believed that the housing market will change, but it does need the 10-year yield to break above 1.94% with duration. 

This means 4%+ mortgage rates. The more significant issue is that during 2020-2024, I thought the housing market would be healthy as long as price growth stayed at 23% or under for those five years. The fear of inventory breaking toward all-time lows — with our demographics and low rates — was the biggest concern during this period. 

That fear became a nightmare, because we broke above that critical cumulative price growth level in less than two years before 2022 arrived. Then, we started 2022 at all-time lows in inventory! Now you get the savagely unhealthy theme of 2022. I recently talked about this in an interview on Real Vision.

It seems odd that sales are declining but price growth is still climbing. This is common in recent history, which has happened before in 2013/2014 and 2018/2019. We had falling sales trends, but prices never went negative year over year. This is the unhealthy aspect of housing.

Higher rates work to cool down pricing, but for some natural balance, you need higher rates for a more extended period. In the past, when rates went up and cooled down demand, they fell back down again, making demand rise. The massive price increase we have seen since 2020 limits the power of lower rates, because home prices have held up in 2022 — a bit too strong in early 2022.

Higher rates need duration so sellers can adjust their pricing reality. This isn’t like the stock market, where you can sell your stock for a loss of 30% in seconds. Demand is getting softer and softer the longer rates stay higher.

One thing I was wrong about early on, when rates rose, was that I believed the purchase application data would decline by 18%-22% on a four-week moving average earlier. Today is the first day that this has happened. 

Purchase application data down

Purchase application data was down 7% weekly and 19% yearly. Today was the first day we broke into the 18%-22% range with a four-week average decline of 19.5%. We are already below 2008 levels today — not that far off the 21st century low of 2014. That year, purchase application data was down 20% year over year on trend, and it was the last time total inventory grew. We are roughly 1 million active listings below the peak of that year. However, we can see a clear demand-weakness trend in 2014 and 2022. It just held up better than I thought it would earlier in the year.

I had to figure out what I got wrong here, and I concluded that 4%-5% mortgage rates weren’t doing the damage I thought they would. The rise of adjustable-rate (ARM) loans helped mitigate the damage of higher rates. However, the year-over-year declines are picking up as rates are near 6%. 

Pricing will change as inventory has picked up. The growth in pricing should cool. This will reverse only when mortgage rates go lower; however, as purchase application data show year-over-year declines, sales trends will head lower and lower.

@NAR_Research Total existing-home sales dipped 5.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million in June. #NAREHS

Another negative item in this report — the days on market (DOM) are terrible. We want the DOM to get back above 30 days. In time, this should happen with higher rates and more inventory. However, you can see why pricing has held up in a savagely unhealthy way this year.

@NAR_Research First-time buyers were responsible for 30% of sales in June; Individual investors purchased 16% of homes; All-cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions; Distressed sales represented less than 1% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 14 days. #NAREHS

All in all, not a good report outside of inventory growing. My biggest fear is that my prediction of housing inflation taking off in a savagely unhealthy way has come true. Just imagine if mortgage rates didn’t rise toward 6% this year, we would have 15%-20% home price growth again. 

In time, inventory will grow. Today, home buyers already have more choices than what they had last year. It’s a sad reality — we are in that “inventory broke to all-time lows” and it’s happening during this unique demographic patch in America. However, this is what we have to deal with right now. The market will get more balanced — it just needs time to get out of the savagely unhealthy mode. 

The post Existing home sales are still savagely unhealthy appeared first on HousingWire.





Source link


When non-QM lender Sprout Mortgage abruptly shut down on July 6, more than 300 workers expected their last paychecks to be delivered the following day as scheduled. They also expected Sprout to offer severance packages to cushion the blow. 

Instead, paychecks weren’t delivered to employees, and severance wasn’t offered, former employees said. There’s more grim news, too. 

One week after shutting down, the company retroactively cut off the health insurance to May 1, although it collected insurance premiums from employees’ paychecks, according to multiple former employees and documents reviewed by HousingWire. 

Some former employees, without a job and at risk of having to pay tens of thousands of dollars in medical bills, filed complaints with the New York State Attorney General’s office. 

The Long Island-based lender, headed by industry veteran Michael Strauss, shut down suddenly after a deal for funding fell through, sources told HousingWire. Sprout, like many lenders, had been hemorrhaging money after a sharp rise in mortgage rates saddled it with tens of millions of dollars in loans it couldn’t sell to investors in the secondary market at par.

“Sprout collected money from our paychecks to pay the health insurance premiums in May and June, but we were told we don’t have the coverage for this period,” said a former employee who requested anonymity. 

He added: “When you have a family of four and the insurance company tells you might have to pay back everything because you didn’t have coverage at the time of services, it’s a huge deal.”

HousingWire reviewed multiple former employees’ paychecks – for May 6, May 23, June 7 and June 22 – to confirm they paid health insurance premiums.  

Health insurance provider Empire Blue Cross Blue Shield spokesperson Alessandra Simkin confirmed that the contract terminated on May 1, 2022. Simkin declined to say when Sprout asked to terminate the contract or provide any additional details.  

“I called Empire Blue Cross Blue Shield and they said they received an email from Sprout on July 12 saying that the benefits would be discontinued retroactively to May 1,” another former employee told HousingWire. 

She added: “That’s when I felt it went above business practices and more of a Ponzi scheme. The decision to close the business is one thing, but going ahead and actively ending their medical benefits for two months is horrible. It’s a blatant disregard for people.”

A spokesperson for Sprout did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Strauss, who sources said has holed up with about a dozen workers since the closure, couldn’t be reached for comment.  

A longtime fixture in the mortgage industry, Strauss has been accused of improper shutdowns before. In 2009, he paid $2.5 million to the Securities and Exchange Commission to settle charges of accounting fraud and concealing deteriorating finances at American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. as the subprime crisis struck in 2007.

Strauss and other senior executives “did not just occupy a front row seat to the mortgage meltdown — they were part of the show,” Robert Khuzami, the then-director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, said in 2009. “As the housing market imploded, these executives kept secret that the company’s holdings were collapsing like a house of cards.”

Strauss was banned from serving as an officer or director of a public company for five years. He founded Sprout in 2015.

Two weeks after the shutdown, former workers at Sprout are still seeking answers. To date, they say they haven’t received specific, actionable information on how to get paid or cover health care costs.

“We understand that you may have concerns regarding pay and insurance coverage. Sprout is committed to working on a solution to address these issues and, hopefully, alleviate the concerns,” Rebecca Yoselowitz, who leads human resources for Sprout, wrote in a July 13 email to select former employees. 

Some former employees said they now are stuck with as much as $50,000 in bills for medical exams, doctors’ appointments, prescriptions and surgeries.

“I called Empire Blue Cross Blue Shield and they said there will be an audit done, and the claims will be overturned: it means I will be responsible for the entire amount because the insurance is no longer effective for the period,” a third former employee said. 

Multiple former employees told HousingWire they filed complaints with the New York Attorney General’s Office. A spokesperson for the office told HousingWire that the AG’s office is “looking into” the claims.

The closure of Sprout was swift and unexpected, even though it came on the heels of another non-QM lender – First Guaranty Mortgage Corporation – also closing. On the afternoon of July 6, Sprout president Shea Pallante told more than 300 workers in a conference call that the company was closing that day. Employees were quickly locked out of their systems, several sources said. 

Two days after it abruptly shut down its operations, the company became the target of a class-action-seeking lawsuit. Two former employees are suing Sprout, its affiliated company Recovco Mortgage Management LLC, and Strauss, alleging they laid off around 100 employees at the New York office without giving legally required written notice and failed to pay their paychecks due the following day.

The post Ex-Sprout employees: no paychecks, no severance and now, no health insurance   appeared first on HousingWire.



Source link


Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s regulator imagines a future where, perhaps through artificial intelligence and machine learning, errors in mortgages are identified in real time before a loan is closed.

Automating compliance could make eligibility, as well as pricing and pooling decisions, and verify and validate that information.

But that scenario is a long way off. Although investors have poured an increasing amount of money into fintechs — $1.7 billion in 2021, up from $0.4 billion five years ago, per the Federal Housing Finance Agency — closing a mortgage loan has since gotten more expensive, not less.

The FHFA this week launched a new Office of Financial Technology, which it said will be the main point of contact for fintech matters.

At the same time, the agency is seeking feedback on how to incorporate technological advancements into the mortgage lifecycle. Through a request for information, the FHFA said it would like to better understand the “potential innovations throughout the mortgage lifecycle and related processes, risks, and opportunities.”

The FHFA asked the public to help it identify “barriers” to implementing fintech in the housing finance ecosystem. It also emphasized the importance of balancing housing equity with technological innovation.

The FHFA said it was following in the footsteps of other financial regulators by establishing its own fintech office. Agencies with existing fintech offices include the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The broadly used term “fintech” encompasses digital innovation in many parts of the mortgage finance ecosystem, the FHFA wrote. The agency offered three narrower categories for fintech as it relates to mortgage finance: “mortgage tech,” which includes digital processes applied to mortgage origination, underwriting, servicing and investment; researching, transacting and managing real estate, or “prop tech,” and regulation and compliance, also known as “regtech.”

The agency said it is interested in the role of fintech in the “ecosystem” of residential mortgages, its role in the secondary mortgage market, the risks of using fintech and its application to compliance and regulatory activities.

In terms of risks, the FHFA highlighted a number of examples that it is taking into account. Those include inadequate regulation of the fintech sector, cybersecurity vulnerabilities due to “complex, poorly understood, or poorly managed innovations,” consumer privacy threats, fair lending violations, and legal, compliance and reputational risk.

The agency also raised the possibility that algorithms may have differential and negative impacts on minorities or underserved markets, and that fintech platforms could “erode the accumulated wealth of individuals and firms” that participate in them.

There is much in the mortgage process that fintechs might improve, but so far, the FHFA wrote, it has not made producing mortgages less costly. Full production costs per loan totaled almost $9,500 in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from a little over $7,500 five years earlier.

The time it takes to close a mortgage loan is still lengthy — on average, 46 days from application to closing. During that time, the average prospective borrower has 30 interactions with sales representatives, the regulator wrote.

Those costs, and the timeline to close a loan, are not equitably distributed, according to the FHFA.

“Underserved populations are often most cost and time-burdened due to historical and ongoing structural and systemic barriers,” the agency wrote.

But the agency is optimistic that fintech innovation can eventually make mortgage processes more equitable, as well as more efficient.

Although the efficiencies and savings haven’t yet materialized, FHFA cited research from McKinsey and Company claiming that a “reengineered, digitalized mortgage origination process could reduce costs by 10%, reduce timelines by 15 to 40%, and reduce interactions with borrowers by 15% to 40%.”

The post FHFA opens fintech office and seeks feedback on mortgage fintech appeared first on HousingWire.



Source link