{"id":4104,"date":"2023-04-21T00:30:15","date_gmt":"2023-04-21T00:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frankbuysphilly.com\/housing-inventory-still-near-record-lows\/"},"modified":"2023-04-21T00:30:15","modified_gmt":"2023-04-21T00:30:15","slug":"housing-inventory-still-near-record-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frankbuysphilly.com\/housing-inventory-still-near-record-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing inventory still near record lows"},"content":{"rendered":"
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We only have 2.6 months’ worth of housing inventory<\/a> in the U.S. after coming off the single biggest home-sales crash year in history. That is where we are today in America. As expected, existing home sales<\/a> fell from February to March since the previous month\u2019s report was intense.<\/p>\n We have a workable range for 2023 sales in the existing home sales market between 4 million and 4.6 million. If we are trending below 4 million \u2014 a possibility with new listing data trending at all-time lows<\/a> \u2014 then we have much weaker demand than people think. Now if we get a few sales prints above 4.6 million, then demand is better than the initial bounce we had earlier in the year. <\/p>\n To get back to the pre-COVID-19 sales range, we need to see existing home sales trend between 4.72 – 5.31 <\/strong>million for at least 12 months. That isn\u2019t happening. We are working from a low bar, and as I have stressed over the years, it\u2019s sporadic post-1996 to have a monthly sales trend below 4 million. In the chart below, with the red lines drawn, you can see how different the sales crash in 2022 was compared to the last two times rates rose and sales fell.<\/p>\n