Want to build a million-dollar real estate portfolio? We’ve got good news for you! You DON’T have to rush full-steam ahead, buying every property that crosses your path to reach financial freedom. That’s right, instead of buying dozens of units a year, you can buy a dozen units within a couple of decades, taking the slow, steady path to building wealth instead of ferociously racing to rack up as many rentals as possible.

While it may sound like every real estate investor is constantly on a buying spree, this is far from the truth. Investors like Andy Gil have been able to build seven-figure real estate portfolios without sacrificing time with family or infringing on their morals to make more money. Far from it, actually; Andy is outwardly trying to make it easier for often neglected renters to find a safe place to stay.

Through the past two decades, Andy has been building his rental property portfolio up to the twelve units it is today. He never thought he would be the person to buy a house, let alone own a rental portfolio. Still, thanks to his differences that make him a superhero in aspects most investors would dread, he’s built serious wealth without sacrificing what’s important. In this episode, you’ll hear precisely how Andy did it, his “T-Rex” policy that entices renters, outsourcing your weaknesses, and using your differences to build wealth.

David:
This is the BiggerPockets Podcast show 803.

Andy:
I’ve been doing that for 20 years, but I didn’t know I was doing that. I was always doing it for clients. I’ve always like, if you’re going to do a renovation, it has to make sense. If you’re going to renovate something, people are either doing it emotionally or as to keep pace with inflation. So anytime you’re doing as a builder, you have, things have to be, they have to appraise in order to be funded.

David:
What’s going on everyone? It’s David Greene, your host of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast. Here today with my co-host Rob Abasolo, looking even more handsome than usual. If you guys are not following on YouTube right now, you are missing out. Or maybe you’re not. The distraction might be so great, it’s going to stop you from getting your key performance indicators done. So maybe listening on Apple Podcast or Spotify is going to be better for your productivity.
Today’s show, fantastic. We get into it with Andy Gil, who is a real estate investor who has slowly built a portfolio based off his strengths, not his weaknesses, at a pace that he’s comfortable with and has overcome some challenges that he had early in life and is very open and authentic about sharing what those were like that many of you listening may relate to. So before we get into this any further, I’d just like all of you to consider leaving us a comment on YouTube and letting us know if you can relate to anything that Andy, Rob or I shared about personal struggles we have that has stopped us from being successful in business and how we overcame them. Trust me, you are not the only person.
Rob, what do you think that investors are going to find most valuable about today’s show?

Rob:
Honestly, I think probably that it’s okay to be weak. It’s actually kind of fun to figure out your weaknesses. I think a lot of people are ashamed of the things that they’re not good at, and so they’re scared to really tell people about their weaknesses and stuff. But we kind of unpack this a little bit with Andy and really talk about, once you figure out those weaknesses, it’s actually becomes a strength because you can start delegating them out and outsourcing it to people that are better than you at those things. And I really feel like that’s when you really hit the turning point in your business. So we get into that quite a bit. We talk about the ADHD component of our brains, me and Andy’s, and yeah, I don’t know. I feel like we haven’t really ever gotten deep like that before, or not at least in a long while. So I really enjoyed this conversation with Andy. He is a rare mind and I love it.

David:
Before we get to Andy, today’s quick tip is if you’re procrastinating doing something that you hate, try body doubling. Rob, what is body doubling?

Rob:
It’s basically when you ask someone to sit in the same room with you as you do something that you don’t like, so that you feel supported doing the thing that you hate.

David:
That’s a very good definition. Let’s get to Andy. Andy Gil, welcome to the BiggerPockets Podcast. A quick review of your portfolio. You’ve been investing for 20 years, have done 10 deals and currently own 12 units all in eastern Connecticut. You have a strict no T. rex policy for your tenants, and you seem like a fascinating individual that I’m interested to interview here. So tell us about this. How is that no T. rex policy working for you?

Andy:
That’s funny that that came up first. Yeah, well, the no T.rex policy, well, first, I’ll just tell you, T.rexes have horrible gas. And not only that, they’re incredibly rude, which is why we don’t allow them. But when I was listing the units, I dug into marketplace and hated the way that people were presenting themselves as landlords, as like, “I’ll only reply if don’t…” Et cetera. And so I went to ChatGPT thinking I could… I was looking to curate a specific clientele or a specific group of people for these units. And I really like dogs, and I think that people that take… I found that people take very good care of their dogs also are pretty, like they’re going to be good tenants. They’re able to curate the life that they want. So ChatGPT came up with this no T. rex policy after several, and it’s working out pretty good. No T. rexes have shown up.

David:
Okay, wait a minute. ChatGPT came up for the idea of not allowing T. rexes in your home?

Andy:
It sure did. Yeah, I’m not that creative.

David:
Oh, that scares me that ChatGPT not only can be practical, but it can also be creative as well.

Rob:
Yeah, because you were skeptical. You’re like, “Oh, no, it’s not that good.” And then I was like, “Hold on, let me just write a BiggerPockets intro really fast using ChatGPT.” And then you’re like, “Oh, it can’t be good.” And then I read it and you were like, “Wow, that sounds just like us.” And I was like, “I know. It’s weird.”

Andy:
Yeah, it is. It’s creepy. Yeah, ChatGPT. But if you use it as a tool and just kind of keep on pushing, you’ll get to your own authentic voice, which is scary, right?

David:
It worked in your case. So basically what happened is you came up with a way of advertising your units to tenants in a way that was less threatening, less demanding, not, “No this, no that.” I always see those posts where they put exclamation points, “Absolutely no smoking, parties, dogs, fun, cooking.” Whatever the case would be. And I think landlords can get away with that because in general, the limited supply in both housing to buy and housing to live in puts the power in the hands of the landlord. Of course, depending on the state, the power can ship back into the hands of the tenant depending on what the laws are like. But if you’ve started the relationship off by kind of jerking them around that way, you’re increasing your likelihood they’re going to do the same thing back to you when they get the power. Was that kind of what was behind your thought process for why you wanted to show yourself differently?

Andy:
I wanted to show up as my authentic self. We’re a family business and I wanted to… I know that if you… I mean, a couple things. I know that if I show my real self to people, then they’re more likely to share their actual situations. And so we also wanted to be able to, it’s not just revenue producing. This is housing, which fulfills a community need. So I wanted to be seen as an individual and not so much as a corporate entity. So I thought that if I presented myself in the ad this way, then I would be able to bring some guards down and have real conversations, which has been really, it’s been great to be your real self, show up and people show up as their selves.

Rob:
What has the tenant reaction been? Because obviously, this is very different from the norm, right? Well, what do you hear from the people that are actually renting from you?

Andy:
Yeah, lots of LMAOs in messages and then, “Hey, let’s get on a call.” And so it brings guards down immediately and then you have real conversation. So really, if I’m me, people can be themselves. So it is very different, but I’ve created a career that way. Most everything I’ve done is a little bit outside box.

Rob:
That’s awesome, man. Can you just quickly, all right, give us a sentence of like in your Craigslist ad when you’re writing this out, what do you actually say?

Andy:
I think it said something along, I wanted to be dog friendly. I wanted, and so I wanted to have that displayed. It was something about fur babies and whatever, fur parents, something along those lines. Sorry, no T. rexes allowed. Something along those lines. So it was like a punctuation and it worked really well.

Rob:
That’s awesome.

David:
Now, Andy, we often talk about people’s why in real estate, but I want to know, tell me about the impact that you want to have on other people.

Andy:
Well, that’s a loaded question. There’s a lot to it, but I think that my why is I really love the conversations that have entered my… I’m actually, you’re on my kitchen table right now. I love the conversations that have come into my home and that I’ve had with my wife and my children as a result of real estate investing. I think that financial freedom, searching for financial freedom is the end goal, but the leadership that I show within my house and the way that we can intentionally do business together and grow as a family and then also bring along, create win-win situations for others to come along, that’s more, I mean, the why.
I’m in my mid-forties. A couple more decades and it won’t matter to me. So when I’m in my mid-seventies and eighties, it all is going to go to the kids anyway. So I think that if you enjoy the journey, if you enjoy the process of it and you’re able to do what you want to do with the people that you love and bring them along, that really is the why.

Rob:
Very cool. Do you think you’re going to teach your kids how to do this too? Is the idea to empower them? Because you said you’re leaving it to them, so I know that this is sort of a, I don’t know, 50/50 in the community. Some people are like, “No, my kids get nothing. They have to work for it.” And then there’s the other half that’s like, “Yeah, I’m doing this for the kids.” So yeah, tell me about that.

Andy:
Yeah, so I have two children. My son is 17, he’ll be 18 in a couple months, and my daughter will be 20 in a few weeks. And yeah, my son is… I have ADHD. He has ADHD, and he struggled in a similar way I did in school, but he really excels as an entrepreneur. I’ve known I was an entrepreneur well before they had a name for that. And so he wanted to run numbers, and so that’s his part of… We want to help him buy a home when he is, by his 19th birthday with an FHA loan or 5% loan, whatever and so we’re kind of putting the groundwork in place for that. Him running numbers has helped him in school. Just the other day, he sent me a text message saying, “Dad, thanks so much for helping me with this. I have never had a real connection to the work.” And he was able to actually pass math as a junior in high school because of this, because of us running numbers together.

David:
You mentioned that you had ADHD. I’m sure that that had an impact on you growing up. Tell us about your early life. Did you have someone in your life to play the role that you’re playing for your son to help him navigate some of these challenges? What was your life like growing up?

Andy:
That’s a great question, and I’ll acknowledge that. When anyone says, “That’s a great question,” they’re buying a couple seconds, so I’m buying a couple seconds. So.

Rob:
Hey, it’s what us ADHD people do though.

Andy:
That’s a wonder, Dave, David, that question. Wow.

David:
We say all the time, “That’s a good question.” What we really mean is, “That is a question I was not prepared to answer.” I had that thought a couple weeks ago. I heard someone say, “Man, that’s a great question.” What that you usually mean, “I don’t know what I’m going to say to that.” Because it often isn’t a great question. Sometimes we say that in reply to like, “I just wasn’t expecting that.”

Rob:
What does it mean when someone says it’s a bad question? “That’s a bad question.”

Andy:
Yeah, that’s a hard one.

David:
And now I need extra time to think about how to answer your really poorly-worded question.

Andy:
I will answer your question. So I didn’t know. I grew up in a… I was raised by a single mom for most of my childhood and there was a lot of… I grew up in a traumatic environment. A lot of stuff went was going on, and so ADHD was kind of secondary. My mom was struggling to keep food on the table and the bills paid. There was a lot of things going on. So it wasn’t until I was later teens that… I knew I had ADHD, but I didn’t, and I knew that I was… I’m also 45, so this was in the nineties and eighties, so it wasn’t what it is today. I didn’t have… And I think that the result of me doing this work and trying to bring attention to neurodiversity is a result of being what I needed when I was a child. So I’m a scout leader, I’m a dad, I’m a husband, and so a lot of the roles I play primarily is to be what I needed when I was a child.

Rob:
I get that, man. I’ve been there and it’s always really interesting to talk to a fellow real estate investor with ADHD because it feels like for me, the thing that is so clear that I need to do more than anything ever is just delegate because I just am not a detail-oriented person. I just get too scatterbrained. Is it the same thing with you when you’re managing your rentals? Are you a relatively organized person or does the ADHD side of things ever get in the way?

Andy:
Yeah, the ADHD thing gets in the way all the time for essentially everything, and I think that I spent a lot of my life trying to mask and to present myself as neurotypical in the different roles and the different… I’ve been an entrepreneur for my whole life and I’ve gone in and out of employment due to circumstances, but even when I was an employee, I was an entrepreneur. So hiding that from people, that I struggled with organization, took up a lot of my energy, and it wasn’t in the last decade where I start to have this self-awareness of what my strengths are, that I was able to let the curtain down a little bit and tell people where I was struggling and where I needed help. And so the organizational component of it, I rely heavily on different apps and outsourced accountability, I suppose is the best way to do that, which allows me to shine in the areas that I’m great at.

David:
You mentioned neurodivergence. How did you lean into some of these strengths that you just mentioned, things you found out you were really great at?

Andy:
So I’m an excellent… I’ve developed skills at different intervals of my career, and when I realized what had been going on with and the impact that neurodivergence or specifically ADHD has had on me, then I recognized that I’m strong in strategy. In due diligence, I’m a machine. And so the hyper focus component of ADHD has really, really helped me to rapidly learn and take on new skillsets, like the skillset of developing skillsets I’m a master at. So it’s like creating systems and processes so that I can forget that this stuff goes on in an automated way is crucial for me because I’ll move past and once I master something, I need to pass it off because I need to go conquer the next hill. That’s really the hyper focus component of ADHD has been, once I named it and called it out, it’s my superpower.

Rob:
And you did mention in your corporate life you were sort of hiding this and everything like that. What did you do before real estate?

Andy:
So I think it’s really funny and I’m going to say that’s a great question because it is a great question.

Rob:
Thank you.

Andy:
Because I didn’t realize that I wasn’t actually in the game until recently. I didn’t realize that real estate, like owning the asset, the cash flowing asset was the end game. So I’ve been a builder for over 20 years. I was developing the skills around. I’ve been a remodeler and a builder. I’ve built, I don’t know how many homes from ground up, getting the permitting in place, zoning, designing the plans and selling the contracts and doing all the project management and et cetera, et cetera. But I never… And we did flips and we bought some different properties, but never with the intent to hold. So I guess before… I would now say the real estate component of my career is more recent, but it was like this, we talked about Jim Carrey before, Finkle is Einhorn, Einhorn is Finkle. It was like this aha moment for me where I was like, “Oh, I’ve been sharpening the ax and I didn’t…” A lot of people get into real estate and try to develop the skills. I had the skills already and then realized that I wasn’t in the game.

Rob:
Yeah. So tell us about that. Tell us about your first deal. At what point did you actually get into real estate?

Andy:
Well, I’ve owned a lot of different things, but this most recent… I mean, my first house, I guess my first house hack, we’ll talk about, so which kind of gives mindset. I bought it in 1999, and so I was a nurse at that time, and the lady at H&R Block told me that I was paying way too many taxes and I needed some write-offs, so I either needed to get married or buy a house. And this was in 1999, so I said, “I don’t have any credit.” Or I told her I had bad credit, and then some mortgage broker somewhere told me, “No, you can qualify for a 3% loan.” And so I didn’t want to pay rent anymore, so I found a house in Rhode Island and I bought it, and I rented out the rooms and actually rented out the basement, which was, when you talk about a basement, I’m talking about a stone foundation that was wet. So I house hacked, and I rented it to my brother, which was horrible of me.
But yeah, that was my very first. I bought it for $83,000. It was 7% interest. I went from $133 in rent to $750 mortgage. I remember being terrified. I didn’t know how I was going to do that, but then the little boom happened and we made some money.

David:
When you paid $83,000, was part of you thinking that you were paying too much?

Andy:
Hell yeah. Hell yeah. Yes. Yeah.

David:
Never goes away.

Andy:
It was… I was like, “Are you crazy? $83,000?”

David:
It’s funny because when we hear that, we’re like, “Well, I’d have bought a house for $83,000. I’d have felt comfortable buying it for $83,000.” But at the time it was $83,000, you were probably wanting it for 71. You’re like, “This is just way too much.” And now we’re looking at $500,000 house saying, “Half a million dollars for that?” But 20, 30 years later, we’re going to look back and it’s going to be worth 4 million. We’re going to be like, “What? You could buy a house for under a million dollars? How’s that possible with that? It’s a million dollars to use a payphone.”

Andy:
Yeah, it probably will be. You’re probably not wrong about that. Yeah, they’ll probably bring them back as novelties and they’ll be a million dollars. Yeah.

David:
You just got to remind yourself all the time. Things always seem expensive at the moment you buy them.

Rob:
That’s true, man. So many people will, they always like to say, “Well, yeah, I mean you got in easy and blah, blah, blah.” And I was like, “You could literally say that about any real estate investor 10 years ago relative to the time that you said that.” Everyone looks like a genius in real estate when they do it for 30 years because they just kept buying it. Yeah, it’s like stuff is a lot more expensive than it was just like you said, but yeah, we’re going to be so smart in 20 years and then it’s like, “Man, I can’t believe you got that house.”

Andy:
Yeah. I mean, if listen to this podcast, if I go back 10 years from now, or if I listen to this in 10 years, the perspective I’ll have then will be so much different. I mean, I’ll listen to this and I’ll think, “Wow, that kid had so much to learn.” And it’s true.

David:
You look back and see a lot of things you wish you would’ve done different. The number one thing is I wish I’d have bought more of it. At the time I was buying it, I thought it was too expensive and I shouldn’t buy it. Now I look back, I’m like, “Man, why didn’t I do that every year? I could have house hacked. I didn’t have kids. I didn’t have a family. I could have went gangbusters.” But all right. So you mentioned hyper focus is one of your strengths. Is there an example of a time that this has paid off for you specifically within real estate?

Andy:
Oh, yes. Oh my gosh, yes. I mean, we could talk about the deal I just did or there’s… So due diligence is fun for me. Anytime that there’s, if you ever want someone to solve a problem and you’re in my proximity, you just go like, “Hmm, that’s weird.” And I’ll just jump in and I’ll come in and do all the research. I really love, I love tracking planning and zoning commission meetings. I know it’s really weird, but I hyper focus on… I actually, I love zoning because it’s what you can do with land. So I read zoning regs. I read planning and zoning commission meetings like they’re a romance novel. Actually, I see the storyline in it. And it’s funny because I was just telling my wife like, “Hey, this guy’s an (beep). Watch what happens in this next month.” We’ll talk about the different… Oh, I probably wasn’t supposed to say that.
But following things from month to month and the storylines in them, the hyper focus of getting into and immersing myself in something to find, to rapidly learn has been very helpful.
I’ll say actually for this property that I just bought, I went into hyper-focused mode and learned everything there is about. They give the tenants, we look up who’s in there, we look up what’s going on. I had to actually reconstruct the… I bought this fractured condo association, so I was buying them as individuals, but essentially owning a majority percentage of the HIA. So I had to involve myself in the… I had to reconstruct the business model of the HOA without actually having access to it. So that hyper focus, rebuilding their business with certainty certainly paid off.

Rob:
Did you know that it was a fractured HOA when you bought it? I don’t think I’ve even heard that term specifically, but yeah. Was that not a scary thing?

Andy:
Not for me. So your careers are built upon different pillars, and so as I lost my shirt in the great recession and learned to be financially… I learned financial literacy through necessity. And then at the next place I really was, I had this mentor at my last job that really, really instilled in me solid business principles. And so the specific component that I did, I ran a construction department and we did about $6 to $8 million a year, and so I was always hunting repeatable bit. I always knew that if I could find something and in large quantity, it gave me enough rope to make some mistakes and correct it. So I was always looking for repeatable ways to lean out the process. So when I was looking at this business model, it’s essentially 12 units of kind of the same thing, and that HOA is just a business that has income and expenses.
So it really, it wasn’t… A fractured, it wasn’t scary for me and I didn’t, when I originally decided to do investing, I bought, David, I bought your book. Actually, a friend sent it to me. I’d never heard of you. And so I listened to it all and our intention was to buy single-family homes. But then once we got into it, and then with my experience in commercial construction and estimating in the type of construction I did, it became pretty apparent to me that multifamily was the way that I was going to be going and where my strength was.

David:
Well, especially if you love analyzing things, right? Multifamily is a playground for people that love to a analyze things. I understand that you recently did a deep dive for your sister on one of her properties. Can you tell us what you did there?

Andy:
Oh, yeah. Yeah. So it’s actually my wife’s sister, my sister-in-law, but I consider her my sister for sure. Have you guys ever heard of Mystic, Connecticut? You guys ever spent any time over here? Foxwoods Resort Casino? You heard of it? Yeah?

David:
No.

Andy:
Wow.

Rob:
Not yet.

Andy:
Yeah, well, come on down. You should. You guys should come to Foxwoods. Yeah, so Mystic, Connecticut is an appreciating little mecca, little town in New England, and so the real estate is going crazy. My sister-in-law loves the area, and a house came on the market that had been neglected, and it was like anything that goes up in historic Mystic is gone in days regardless of its condition. So I had to jump in and really learn the specific zoning laws.
So she wanted to acquire this property. We were going to rehab it, and then we were going to build an ADU in the backyard, and really we just had 24 hours to do this, and this is where I excel. I came in, learned the zoning laws, learned quickly if it needed a special permit and not a special permit, but the definition of special permit or not, or if it can be done administratively, what that criteria was. And I was able to say with certainty that yes, we could do what she was planning to do to project a realistic ARV of what that would be and how much income that Airbnb or short-term rental could generate in a very short period of time.

Rob:
Up to that point, how acquainted were you with that process in general?

Andy:
I’ve been doing that for 20 years.

Rob:
Okay.

Andy:
But I didn’t know I was doing that. I was always doing it for clients. I’ve always like, if you’re going to do a renovation, it has to make sense. If you’re going to renovate something, people are either doing it emotionally or as to keep pace with inflation. So anytime you’re doing as a builder, things have to be, they have to appraise in order to be funded. So I was always doing that and learning how to… I see the episodes on how to kick back on an appraisal since the crash. I have a PhD in that. We’ve been trying to get loans funded on things that aren’t yet built is… I’ve been doing that forever.

Rob:
Yeah. Well, that’s good. That must have helped. I remember the first time I ever built an ADU. I submitted the plan. I mean, it was a six-month process to get the plans ready and submitted to LA County, which they don’t have a lot of regulations there. Just kidding. It was awful. And so I’d submitted it, and I remember they gave me the plans back three weeks later and the entire, I mean, it was 10 pages that were all just redlined, just so many comments, and it had never done anything like that before. And I remember just that is one of the moments that I felt probably most defeated in my real estate career. I wanted to cry. I was like, “I cannot believe I don’t understand any of this.”
And I remember going to sleep and waking up the next day, and then I read it again, all the marks. I was like, “Okay, that actually makes more sense than I thought, but I still don’t get it.” Then I went to sleep and I read it again, and then all of a sudden it really wasn’t that bad, and it’s like you don’t really realize it, but sometimes you really need to take it incredibly slow, sleep on it, come back to it because the stuff really does start to get easier once you realize that it’s not as scary as it seems on the surface.

Andy:
The thing of these things, so when you’re getting these things through zoning and you’re getting permitting in place for different projects, you have to think of it as playing tennis. You’re doing a volley, so if you’re expecting a home run right out of the gate, you’re going to be disappointed. So realistic expectations on this in timelines, so you’re going to go back and forth on some different things and you’re going to learn the specifics of each town and county and what they’re looking for. So no one gets through on the first time.

David:
That’s a great, great point. Yeah, and that could cause a lot of frustration. If you’re the type of personality that says, “I just want to look at it, make a decision, be done, move on, check the box.” That’s not a box checking thing. That’s almost like you’re sending scouts to do recon. They’re coming back and they’re saying, “This is what the other side has.” You go, “Okay, how are we going to strategize here? What could we do? Let’s send out that and see how they reply.” It’s much more of a game like that. So your brain likes that type of stuff?

Andy:
I love that stuff. I love development. Yep. I love, yeah, anything that if you can change the use of land and you can value add, I’ve been doing this stuff for a very long time, and I love the strategy of it. I love creating the relationships and going back and forth and creating something that previously… God’s not making any more land, but what we can do with that land is still up in the air and how much revenue you can generate with it. So that’s where I love zoning.

David:
All right. So what about some weaknesses that you outsource? What are some things that you don’t enjoy doing or don’t like that you outsource to other people?

Andy:
So this is like, these are… David, that’s a great question. Yeah, so I have the propensity to be a poor manager, and I’ll clarify that. The difference between leadership and management in my brain, and I don’t know what the actual definition of it, but management is executing the plan and then measuring that. So if I don’t have breadcrumbs along the way or notifications or accountability for what the original business plan was, then I can lose sight of that. So I have to create external accountability. So I do that with, I work as a consultant as doing some commercial estimating still, and I do three or four different things, but my wife is my partner, not just in life and in business, and so she really, she’s like my metronome. And so I’m not going to remember any recurring event that doesn’t have structure or accountability around it is in the danger zone for me, and I know that I have to externalize that and vocalize. I’ve learned my brain, and so I know that I don’t need to be, I don’t have to shine bright. I don’t have to be the center of it all in the… We can shine the light on other people, and the more we do, that’s leadership.
And so for them to grow, you’re trying to get people to where they’re going. That’s how I view leadership and the different…. I can’t, differentiator. I’ll leave that there. Yeah?

Rob:
Yeah. We’ll trademark it if it doesn’t exist.

Andy:
Yeah. Thank you so much. Yeah. Yeah. Hashtag Andy Gil. Yeah, so I outsource routine accountability and management things. So I do that through notifications, through different apps on my phone, through having people check in on me, through creating body doubling. I don’t know if you’re familiar with this or not.

Rob:
Yeah, yeah. It’s effectively… So I tried this one time and it works well. It’s basically you’re asking someone to effectively sit in the room with you while you work through something just so that you feel like there’s camaraderie or support in that moment. Is that right?

Andy:
Yeah, that’s exactly it. Yeah. Tell someone what you’re doing and sit with you, and you’re like, “All right, I’m going to do this thing that’s hard for me.” So I mean, I may have the skill set to do it, and as long as I externalize and say, “Hey, this is what I’m going to be doing this time period,” that time period passes, and then state what you were able to accomplish. So for the hard things that are boring or that I don’t want to do or whatever. So that really is, and to be able to say vocally that I have the propensity to be a poor manager if I don’t plan well and externalize my weaknesses like that, that’s so empowering because I can say it and now we can all shine and move forward.

David:
I think when we see examples of success, we see LeBron James, we see Michael Jordan, we see Tiger Woods. We only see the strengths. This person can jump higher than everyone else, run faster than everyone else, does something better. What you don’t see, but is maybe even more important is the coaching staff, the general manager, the other players that see the weaknesses in that person’s approach and are actively going to fill that in, right? The coaches are probably spending more time thinking about weaknesses of their best players since the strengths are obvious. You don’t have to wonder what someone’s good at. That jumps out at you right away, but we hide our weaknesses. Owning that we have a weakness allows us to sort of coach ourself. That’s what I hear you saying, right? I know I operate best in these environments, so let me bring someone in to do it.
I know that I will mess this up. Let me put a person around me. It doesn’t matter how well you do at something, if you go crush it at your job and then you forget to pay the mortgage every month, like you said, it’s a reoccurring thing, and you’re like, “What does it matter?” And it gets foreclosed in two months. It doesn’t benefit you, right? You have to know what your weaknesses are if you want to be able to capitalize on your strengths.
And I know that there’s a trend right now, which is good and positive of people seeking to understand why am I like this, right? There’s a lot of podcasts, there’s a lot of books, there’s a lot of self-help stuff that talks about things we went through in childhood. The word “trauma” gets thrown around a lot, which is nothing against people that have legit trauma, but now it’s like, “Oh, my husband forgot to put the trash out” and now we call that trauma, right? But understanding why there’s a problem is not the same as coming up with a plan to work around that problem, to become more successful, right? It’s like, “Once I know why I’m like this, then we stop.”
We’re like, “Okay, job’s done. I understand what happened in life.” No, now you have to take that knowledge and you have to come up with a framework that will allow you to be successful, which it sounds like is something that you’ve done. I’m going to guess growing up, you didn’t have a whole lot of examples or people that were coaching you in this way. Is this something you sort of had to stumble into yourself?

Andy:
Yeah. Yes. When you grow up in an environment where everyone’s trying to survive and we grow trying to get to the next thing, there’s not a lot of thought process on future planning. And so even though I was around and even in my career, I was around a lot of real estate, we were building a lot of it, no one was investing in it and keeping it. So it didn’t occur to me to do that. So I didn’t have an example. I had, well, I had great role models in my life as a young man. I joined scouts early and my mom did the very best she could, and I’m at peace with that, but I didn’t have the growth that I’m able to afford my kids. And to be able to really, at this point in my life at 45 years old, legacy is very important to me. And that I’m able to provide for my children the framework to be successful in how they define that. And that in turn makes me successful.
And as a byproduct, we’re going to generate revenue and generational wealth. So it’s really, as younger man, I wanted to get away from poverty and I wanted to get away from, to be anything but the poor kid. And so it was ego driven. And at this stage in my life, I really could give a rat’s ass what anyone thinks about me. If I’m not your cup of tea, that’s cool. Move on, scroll and get to the next thing. I really just want, I have my why is really clear at this point.

David:
That’s fascinating. Rob, what are you thinking as you hear this? Because I feel like you can relate to Andy, you just haven’t said anything yet. You are a detail person. We had this experience buying the property in Scottsdale where we each got to bring up our individual strengths and weaknesses. Seeing how you work with decor. I mean, I was literally thinking some of the things Andy’s thinking, like, “If I had to pay attention to this much detail, this thing would’ve been screwed up in the first 12 minutes of doing.” I never would be able to hold my focus on Bed Bath & Beyond and thinking of, “How would this look in a picture?” Your whole brain processes information completely different. What would this look like? Would a guest want to book on it? Would they likely complain about it?
I’m at a 30,000-foot level from so many things that I need the people like you. I’m curious, is that a thing you’ve always been like? Is that part of why you have such a big YouTube channel and why you worked in marketing is you have this angle to see details that other people miss? And how has that served you and how has it worked against you?

Rob:
Yeah, so there’s this funny thing that was going around a couple years ago, I want to say. It was like a meme. And so basically, it was saying that there are two types of people. There is someone who their inner monologue is dialogue, and then the other type of person is their inner monologue are abstract thoughts. And so a lot of people saw this and they’re like, “Wait, what? Not everyone thinks in dialogue and not everyone…” And then the other half was like, “Wait, not everyone thinks in abstract thoughts?” I think in abstract thoughts. I’m scatterbrained. When I walk into a place and I’m analyzing it, I’m not like, “Oh, the couch would go here, blah, blah, blah.”
I don’t have that inner monologue with myself. So it, for me, I walk into a place and when I’m inspired, I can definitely focus on one thing, but it really is like I’m grabbing stuff out of the air and basically pulling it down. And so as much as I love that aspect about my creativity and what I do, I mean, my YouTube channel is very… I don’t script it out. It’s all ad-libbed. I have five bullet points, and it’s ADHD madness.
As much as I love that side of my creativity, there are times when I’m like, “Okay, it’s time to grow up and own some of these things.” I complain a lot about how I don’t have enough time in my day, and this has been a big business failure for me. It’s like I close my laptop at 6:00 PM, frustrated that nothing got done. That’s what it feels like. And so at a certain point, I have to just kind of own up that, yes, I have my strengths and weaknesses, but I can’t always use, for example, my ADHD as an excuse for why I’m unorganized or why I’m not able to advance. And so I’ve been making a lot of changes to my life in the last two months.
I’ve kind of talked about it a little bit on air, but I’m not a morning guy at all. Waking up at 9:00 would be the best version of myself, but I’ve been waking up at 5:30 every day for the past two months. And it sucks, but it’s this, an action step that I needed to take to actually be successful. I have employees now. I have 20 or 25 people at this point that are on my payroll, everything. I have a family that I have to support, and so I have to just keep myself accountable. And payroll keeps me accountable. So I’ve just sort of, I don’t know, I’m changing in a lot of different interesting ways.

Andy:
Are you guys familiar with EOS? Entrepreneurial Operating System? Yeah? Yeah. I worked at, the last place I worked at was where I was introduced to it, and we ran the company on that. I was on key staff and there was about a hundred employees there. And the difference between the visionary and the integrator are really, it’s really remarkable. So what I’m hearing you say, Rob, is that you’re a visionary and you are trying to become the integrator as well. And so I’d love to see how that turns out in the way because it’s really hard to hold space for both and to be successful in both areas. Your creative mind is what created your empire. And so executing that business plan, how you hand that off is really… And you’re able to, because you have to be, the product is you. And so as you release that and be able to chunk out different parts of it, I can’t wait to watch your story unfold.

Rob:
Yeah, it’s been fun, man. I think it’s, someone convinced me just under a year ago to hire a COO. They’re like, “You need to hire a COO. You can’t, you’re doing everything, and it’s obviously spreading you thin.” And so I did. And when I did that, I was like, “Okay, that’s great.” It really was a source of empowerment, but I still find myself failing the COO for what he needs to do by not getting him what he needs to run the business and stuff. Yeah, I mean, it’s like I can stay very comfortable at where I’m at, but where I want to be in a couple years from now is I want to have thousands of units that are very cool, unique places. And the only way I’m going to do that is I have to sort of hunker down and get in the weeds a little bit with my own business versus always trying to delegate it out. So it’s probably not the correct way. I don’t know. I’m trying to figure that part out.

Andy:
I mean, the wording that you used, the verbiage that you used along the lines of not using ADHD as a crutch as an excuse for everything, and that kind of accountability is really, it’s really empowering to… Once you own it and say like, “All right, well, this is an excuse, it’s a reason.” And then you fill in around that to be successful in the way that you define it. Really, I love the way that you described that.

Rob:
Yeah, man. Well, honestly, I feel like we kept this together pretty good for a couple of ADHD blokes. And David, you’re keeping us on the path.

David:
Yeah. And on that path, we are going to transition from ADHD to DDD. The next segment of our show is the Deal Deep Dive. In this segment of the show, we dive deep into a particular deal that our guest has done. And Andy, I understand that you’ve got a 12-unit property to talk about, is that right?

Andy:
I do, I do. Yes.

David:
All right. So we’re going to fire these questions at you. I’ll start. First question, what type of property is it?

Andy:
It’s a fractured condo community. 18 units, and we bought 12 of them.

David:
And before Rob asks his question, do you mind repeating what the definition of a fractured condominium?

Andy:
A fractured condominium complex is one that was intended to be single, owned by individuals with an HOA, and at some point turned towards investors and became majority investor owned. So there’s a lot of potential upside, yeah, as I see it.

David:
So the complex was owned by the people, sorry. Every unit of these 12 was originally owned by someone different, and then they had an HOA they governed to make sure your neighbor didn’t paint their house, Pepto-Bismol pink or played loud music or whatever. Then the people who originally owned them, sold them, investors came in and bought them. Then they started renting them out. So the HOA rules had to be adapted to accommodate for the fact that a lot of tenants are going to be involved. Is that basically?

Andy:
Not really. Yeah. So that’s where the opportunity was, is I don’t want to… Is that as a majority owner, I essentially get to dictate what the bylaws are and if at some point to change the declaration, the condo declaration. So yes.

David:
You own all 12 units that were originally owned by individual people?

Andy:
We’re closing on the 13th next week, but yeah, we’ll own.

David:
There we go.

Andy:
Yep.

David:
Okay. So 12 units in a complex that has more than 12.

Andy:
Yes, 12 units in a complex of 18. I’m sorry.

David:
All right, there we go. All right.

Rob:
How did you find the 12 units?

Andy:
Through a real estate agent that is a friend of mine, and he was posting a completely different property that I engaged with, and we got on a call and it was a pocket listing, and which essentially meant to me that the seller was not willing to commit to any particular agent, and I was correct about that. And-

David:
Commitment issues.

Andy:
Yep, commitment issues.

David:
That’s right. I bet you that’s part of why you got such a good deal on this thing. It doesn’t always serve you well to try to be in an open relationship with your agents. All right. So how much did you pay for this thing?

Andy:
$1.2 million for the 12 units.

Rob:
And how did you negotiate it?

Andy:
So this is really hard to buy actually. The seller who is, I still talk to three times a week. We’ve become good friends. He had it teed up for a cash-out refi through a local bank here. And so he really didn’t care if he sold it or not. So I offered asking and he said no. So then when we got into the details of it, he didn’t want anything, any item less than $500 was on me. And I was like, “Let’s get to a definition of item.” And then he was like, “No.” And so then I couldn’t see it. And so I said eventually like, “Hey, let me see the units and I’ll buy them as is.” And so we were able to meet, he’s a builder like me, puts his pants on one leg at a time. We became fast friends. He realized that I wasn’t going to lock him up in a P&S and then start chipping away. I intended to pay what we were. And we did that.
And the negotiation was tough. It was, but once we got in, I realized it wasn’t a real problem that we were fighting. And once we got into, if I could get him into the room to have a conversation that we could learn if this was a good fit or not, and I was spot on.

David:
I like what you said about it wasn’t a real problem. He was trying to prevent something that he thought could happen that you didn’t have any intention of doing. That’s beautiful.

Andy:
Right. Yeah.

David:
Rob?

Rob:
Oh, is it me? Sorry, this was such a great conversation. This is the ADHD. How did you fund it?

Andy:
All right. Yeah. So he had it teed up for a cash-out refi at the local bank. So the appraisal was already done. I didn’t know this at the time when we were negotiating it. So I have a partner in this deal. And so we went to the bank and we essentially, there was already a commitment letter that was issued to them. So we just requalified it within two or three days and we got a commitment letter and we went off to the races.

David:
All right. Now, this is probably the most fun question. What did you do with it when you bought it?

Andy:
Well, it had tenants in it, so the seller and I hit it off really, really well. So I really take my head off to the agent because he essentially stepped aside and allowed this to just happen because we were going to solve the problems together. And a lot of people, their ego get in the way of that, and he really did a great job by taking them back. And so we filled the units. There were a few empty units, but he really wanted me to, he knew that this was going to be my launching of this, and he really wanted that to be successful for me. So he filled the thing up, and so we took it over and was able to introduce myself to the tenants. Not everyone was happy I was there. And we’ve switched over a few of the tenants. I think at this point we’re going to be, I think we’re up to five that we’re qualifying ourselves.
But yeah, it’s a really great property because it’s one bedroom, one bath. It’s in, are you guys familiar with Electric Boat, the submarine capital of the world? Connecticut? I don’t know if… So we have 20,000. The EB is, the government is launching a new submarine line, so they’re doubling down. There’s 20,000 employees and they’re adding another six, 7,000. So any units within a 25, 30-mile radius is pretty much insulated from this recession that potentially is coming because all the trades people are being picked up there. So we’re kind of being propped up in that way. So I know that there’s a huge shortage of these rentals and I’m marketing to professionals that will be buying in the next two years. So I understand there’s going to be a lot of turnover.

Rob:
Wow, that’s good intel. You’ve just ruined that market for yourself. I hope you know that. Everyone at home’s like, “Oh yeah.”

Andy:
Well, no one listens to this podcast, right? You guys have a small-

Rob:
It’s pretty, it’s up and coming.

Andy:
It’s a small niche thing, yeah.

David:
What lessons did you learn from this deal?

Andy:
What lessons did I learn? I learned that, so this is deal probably put me on a path for multifamily. I learned that if I take on, like I took this property on and the rent roll was 13,200. It’s currently at encroaching 15,000, so that’s like a 12% increase. And I learned that anything over five family, I can generate my own… I can increase my valuation, I can create wealth this way. I learned about the five-year arm. That can be a bit scary, but if you are super analytical, I learned this is where I want to be. I’m going to do renovations and flips and things like that to fund these multifamily deals. I learned that this is where I want to be.

Rob:
That’s awesome, man. Well, final question. Who is the hero on the team for your deal?

Andy:
This would be my wife. I have this squirrel brain, this crazy, and I mean it too. We’ve been together for 23 years and we met as kids at 22 years old. And we’ve been through an awful lot of ups and downs, and we have a child with cystic. My son has cystic fibrosis. We’ve really been through it all. And she is the timing for me. She sets the pace, she sets the standard for our children, for myself and her belief in us, in what we can do together really, none of this would happen.

David:
Awesome. I mean, I don’t know if I’ve ever heard anyone say that their wife was the hero of the deal, but that’s very cool to hear. Especially because if you think about it, in order to keep you operating at your best, she’s got to figure out, “Well, what are the weaknesses that we talked about? How do I cover for that?” Right? So that is what heroes do. That’s awesome.

Andy:
Yeah. I don’t know. My wife is a therapist, a mental health therapist, and my daughter. So it’s great to have a live-in therapist. That’s awesome.

David:
I need to marry a live-in masseuse. My body’s always sore all the time from all the various sports injuries. Now you got me thinking here.

Andy:
Yeah, no, you put that out to the world. Hey, all masseuses. David’s looking.

David:
All right. So what’s next? You mentioned that you have some tenants in the pipeline that are contracting for work and you recognize there’s going to be turnover. Have you already started thinking about systems in place that you’re going to use to handle the vacancy that you know should be coming?

Andy:
Yeah, I mean, as we grow, I think I don’t have a specific quantity of units I want to get to in the next couple years, but as we grow the systems, we’ll probably outsource that to agents to fill those vacancies. But I think that a really well, I have a pretty good following on Instagram, and that’s from being relatable. And so I think that if we reach out to people and advertise the units, well, like really show them creatively, then I think that they’ll fill. I’m not really all that concerned about vacancy as long as we act. If we don’t know they’re coming, communicate with the people that are leaving, make sure that we have our runway and people in place to do that in a timely way. I don’t think that we’re, I’m not that worried about vacancy from the experience I’ve had so far.
And as far as what’s next? Like I said, I really love zoning. And I have a couple deals in the pipeline right now that are potentials but no contract. Connecticut has this 830G law for affordable housing where it essentially overrides local zoning to allow for zoning rechange for affordable housing. And actually today I think they announced almost an 8% increase of what, 80 to a hundred percent affordable housing income levels are. So that expands the amount of people that fall into that. So we’re looking at a property potentially to develop into 20 to 30 units. I don’t know that it’ll go anywhere, but this is the pipeline along that I’m thinking. We want to eventually get to a short-term to mid-term rental hosting to get to a percentage of that to kind of… And that’s where my wife wants to come in. But yeah, we’re looking. We’re looking.

Rob:
So Andy, before we wrap up, can you give us a general idea of your portfolio numbers and where you’re heading with your current portfolio? How fast is it growing, all that kind of stuff?

Andy:
Yeah. We’re currently at 12 and we’re going to be adding the 13th unit next week through a creative financing deal. And my goal, I don’t have a goal number, but I have an aspiration. I think we’re going to get to about 30 units in the next 18 months or so if things go well. I think depending on what interest rates do, they pause today, but they’ll probably come up a little bit, a couple more times. What cap rate is attractive is to be seen. So I don’t really know exactly. I’m going to stay in touch and connected to it and move fluidly. We will find the deals, the value-add deals in my local market. I’m not quite comfortable reaching out yet to outside of this area, but I’m starting to play in that.

Rob:
And what would you say your total portfolio worth is now after years having built this thing and expanding it?

Andy:
I think about 1.8 I think is where we’re at right now.

Rob:
Nice.

Andy:
And half of, I have a partner on one of those deals. So I think that will be to… My goal is to be, and it sounds, I hate to say this out loud, but I think it’s important too, because the relationship people have with money is important. I think that a lot of listeners, it’s a dirty word. I think in the coming two to three years, I want to have a net worth of $1 million. I want to cross the $1 million mark in the next two to three years on my personal financial statement. And I don’t even feel like that’s aspirational. I didn’t think that something like this was available to a person like me. I didn’t think that… I knew I knew how to build, I knew how to run a business, knew how to do all the stuff, but I didn’t think I could get in the game. So that’s where I don’t really care about the unit count so much.
I think that’s where I want to be, but it’ll create some freedom. And honestly, if it’s available to me, if a guy like me can be doing this, really, if you just add on one skill at a time, develop the skill of developing skills, I feel like almost anyone can do this.

David:
And you’re still working for a builder while this is going on?

Andy:
No, I’m a consultant. I work as a consultant. I don’t have a… I’m self-employed. I do ADHD coaching. I’m a contractor. We do rehabs, remodels, and then I also work, do a bit of consulting for estimating and development, staff development in that area.

David:
What I love about, I mean, there’s many things about this show that are awesome, but one of the things that I love about it is that you didn’t feel this need to jump in and work 90 hours a week just trying to accumulate assets without picking your head up and looking around and asking, “What is the point of doing this?” You just stayed in the race like the tortoise, just slow and steady. I know what I like. I know what I don’t like. I know I’m doing this for my family. It makes no sense to sacrifice my family to get all these units and then brag to my kids about how they’re going to own a portfolio that they never wanted and they end up screwing it up because they didn’t get enough time with dad to learn how to manage it once it was handed to them or that was never their dream.
You didn’t overly stress yourself out from what I’m hearing, right? You weren’t like, “I don’t know how I’m supposed to handle all these rehabs that I have.” It can get easy to become obsessed with real estate, but real estate is not a asset class that really favors or rewards the people who sacrifice everything else just for this. It takes time to do. It is a get rich slow scheme. It is. Every property becomes more valuable every year that you have it, as inflation does its thing and rents continue to increase and you build better systems and you predict problems better. So you have to run the marathon. This is not a sprint.
And so many people, they listen to these shows and they say, “I just want the information in 12 minutes. I don’t want to listen to an hour-long podcast of a story. Just give me the answer.” Because they think that they’re just going to work really hard for two years and then be done and never work again. And this does not work that way. And I think you’re a great example of the right way to do it. What are your thoughts on that?

Andy:
I think that anytime someone apparently appears as a success overnight, so I got a lot of…. When we were posting, “Hey, we acquired this thing.” A lot of people didn’t think that we were in a position to do something like that. So I think that anytime someone appears to be a success overnight, there’s a lot of, there’s years and years and years of background work to get to that. I really… the Great Recession really scarred me, so I was really… I mean, we took a huge hit during that and I used to be called a gun slinger, and then I became extremely conservative to where the strategy, the strategic component of me, which is my asset, was refined. So yeah, I 100% agree that these things, your skills are developed day over day, one item at a time and until you become technically competent, technically on various different skills and that just builds.

David:
Thank you for saying that, Andy. Thank you for acknowledging building skills is important. You have to do that if you want to be good at this. It is not a secret backdoor to success that doesn’t involve having to get good at something. You got to build skills here just like you had to build skills at the job you hated that you quit to get into real estate. I mean, that’s some great advice. So many people get in and they’re so angry and they’re frustrated and I get the hate hateful DMs or they come to a meetup and they just want to, like, “You said that I was going to get passive income and I was never going to have to work.” I said, “Well, first off, I didn’t say that, but you have heard that. I don’t know why you believed it. There is no diet where you can eat a bunch of donuts and they’re not going to go to your hips or whatever the case is. It doesn’t work that way.” Right?
Rob’s waking up at 5:30 in the morning because that’s the only way that he can do it with the circumstances he has. He’s building skills. So thank you for being honest about that and not portraying it in a way that makes people want to go pay for your course or pay for whatever you’re doing because you’re selling a dream that they’ll never accomplish.

Andy:
No, it’s not real. Yeah, passive income is not passive.

David:
Yeah, it’s a great. It’s passiver is what I tell people. It is not passive. That’s it. It’s better.

Andy:
Passiver. I like that.

Rob:
It’s passish.

David:
Passish. There you go. The Passish Investment Podcast. All right, Andy, if people want to find out more about you or even if they want to connect, I’m sure your story’s going to inspire a lot of people. Where can they get ahold of you?

Andy:
Well, on Instagram at Coach Andy Gill. That’s G-I-L. A-N-D-Y G-I-L.

David:
Awesome. Rob, what about you?

Rob:
Yeah, you could find me over on Instagram and YouTube at Robuilt, and if this story was inspiring and you’re like, “Wow, I’m going to take action.” Or like, “Hey, I’ve been dealing with ADHD and I didn’t know that I could do this real estate thing.” If that was something that resonated with you, consider leaving us a five star review on the Apple Podcast platform. That way we can get served up to many other real estate entrepreneurs and help them achieve financial freedom. How about you, David?

David:
Find me on DavidGreene24.com or DavidGreene24 at all the social media profiles and let us know what you thought about this interview so you can DM any of us. Let us know what you thought. Definitely reach out to Andy and then leave us comments on YouTube if you’re watching there. We read those.

Andy:
I appreciate you guys.

David:
Andy, you did great, man. I really appreciate you being here. You have a great story. Thanks for being so authentic and sharing what really goes on in the real world of real estate investors. Not the glamorous, shiny TikTok videos where people are being taught how to become millionaires in a seven-second video.

Andy:
No, it’s just a lot of scars. I love, listen, it’s really a… It’s surreal to be meeting and talking to you guys after the amount of hours I’ve listened to you, to both of you and-

Rob:
Awesome. Man.

Andy:
… so I super appreciate the…

David:
Of course. Rob, what about you? Any last words here?

Rob:
That is a bad question.

David:
This is David Greene for Rob, the bad boy of real estate Abasolo, signing off.

 

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Recorded at Spotify Studios LA.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.



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Large banks have historically been the rulers of the jumbo market. Economic conditions, however, are opening up space for new entrants eying market share. This is because surging mortgage rates, upcoming regulatory changes and regional bank collapses have forced large depositories to pull back. Their retreat opens up opportunities for rival firms to grab market share.

In Part II of our two-part series, HousingWire crunched the numbers to reveal which lenders have pulled back or exited the jumbo market, and which nonbank lenders and Wall Street firms are moving into the jumbo space. (Part I explains the jumbo market’s decline.)

Our analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data focuses on conventional, non-conforming first-lien mortgages used to purchase or refinance single-family dwellings. We also sought input from industry experts, lenders and loan officers. 

Nonbank lenders are positioning themselves to gain some market share left by depositories, though they aren’t expected to make major inroads anytime soon. In the secondary market, Wall Street firms have shown more appetite for these mortgages.

Who’s at the top?

Wells Fargo was No. 1 when it came to jumbo originations in 2022, with $28.7 billion originated, per HousingWire’s analysis. Wells was followed by First Republic (at $20.5 billion), Bank of America ($20.4 billion), JPMorgan Chase ($17.9 billion), U.S. Bank ($15.9 billion) and Citi ($13.7 billion). PNC Bank ($7.9 billion), Morgan Stanley ($7.5 billion) and MUFG Union Bank ($5.8 billion), later acquired by U.S. Bank, rounded out the banks in the top 10. Pontiac, Michigan-based United Wholesale Mortgage was the only nonbank on the list, in the ninth position with $7 billion in volume in 2022.

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Yet much has changed since the start of the calendar year.

Inside Mortgage Finance (IMF) data shows that First Republic held the jumbo crown in the first quarter of 2023, with $3.7 billion in non-agency jumbo mortgages. Its volume declined 37% quarter over quarter and 55.8% year over year. Wells Fargo’s jumbo volume of $3.2 billion in the first quarter was down 43% compared to the previous quarter and 79% compared to the same period in 2022. 

First Republic’s reign was short-lived, largely because of its unique and risky jumbo mortgage strategy.

The regional bank focused heavily on jumbo loans, serving interest-only mortgages at super-low rates to wealthy individuals in Silicon Valley. First Republic went from $6.3 billion in jumbo originations in 2018 to $20.5 billion in 2022. Borrowers last year had a median income of $495,000 and properties had a median value of $2.4 million, per HousingWire analysis. Median rates were at 3.2%, compared to 3.25% for conventional loans.

Typically, borrowers didn’t have to start repaying the principal for a decade. The strategy enabled it to grow its assets during the pandemic, but left First Republic severely undercapitalized following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

First Republic’s stock bottomed in March in the wake of the bank failures, and depositors rushed to pull their money out. The nation’s biggest banks stepped in to stabilize the lender with $30 billion of their own money, giving the Federal Depository Insurance Corporation time to find a buyer. After a weekend of negotiations, the FDIC sold First Republic to JPMorgan. It was the second-largest bank collapse in U.S. history. 

JPMorgan quickly said it would kill First Republic’s low-rate jumbo mortgage program.

“The loans themselves are… really creditworthy and being marked. They’re obviously going to have a much higher return going forward. But we’re not going to be putting a lot of jumbo, cheap jumbo mortgage loans in our books. And we’ve already incorporated all of our numbers into potential runoff,” the bank’s CEO Jamie Dimon told analysts. 

JPMorgan itself reduced its jumbo volumes to $2.9 billion in the first quarter of 2023, down 31.6% quarter over quarter and 75.4% year over year. 

First Republic’s ascendency in the jumbo market also reflects Wells Fargo’s decision to reposition itself, exiting the correspondent channel and focusing on minority homebuyers through its retail operation.

Bank of America, which ranked third on the HousingWire’s list, said despite competitors reducing their footprint in the jumbo market, it hadn’t seen a significant increase in volume. IMF data suggests BofA’s production in Q1 2023 was $2.8 billion, down 29.5% quarter-over-quarter, the lowest drop among the country’s top five banks. Its jumbo volume also declined 76% year over year. 

Bryan Sherman, senior vice president and regional sales executive at Bank of America Home Loans, said the bank, which exited correspondent and broker channels to focus on its retail branches, never targets a particular product or program. BofA, however, recognizes that the current landscape benefits adjustable mortgage rate products, especially in the jumbo market. 

“In a rising rate environment, ARM products are definitely more popular for clients than fixed-rate products because they’re going to take the lowest rate they can, typically in ARM. They’re going to secure it until the market rebounds, and then potentially, they’ll look at refinancing into a lower rate,” Sherman said. “Some people are still choosing to lock on a 30-year fixed rate, but in a rising rate environment –- typically in the jumbo space – ARMs are the preferred option for those clients.”

U.S. Bank originated $2.7 billion from January to March, down 34.6% quarter over quarter and 58.8% year over year, per IMF data. The bank closed its wholesale mortgage businesses it inherited through the acquisition of MUFG Union Bank in December 2022 and laid off staffers in July.

Citi expects the jumbo market to remain challenging for some time. The bank originated $1.9 billion in jumbos in the first quarter, down 23.6% compared to the previous quarter and 47% than the same quarter in 2022. 

Liz Bryant, head of retail mortgage sales at Citi, said recent financial sector stresses and tighter liquidity conditions caused lenders to pull back from leveraging their balance sheets. 

“Rates will likely remain elevated in today’s range in the coming period, regardless of federal monetary policy. If builders are adding more homes, we should continue to see purchase demand hold throughout the buying season,” Bryant said. 

Customer demand for jumbo loans remains strong, she said, driven by property appreciation, material and labor inflation low inventory in new developments and limited resale listings.  

The bank provides a high number of 30-year fixed-rate jumbo products, a good option in a rising interest rate environment, she said, noting that it’s not selling them on the secondary market. “We’ll explore the secondary market as opportunities arise,” Bryant said. 

Nonbanks enter the field 

HousingWire’s analysis of 2022 HMDA data shows that two large independent mortgage banks are capitalizing on big bank pullback from jumbo portfolios, including UWM and Guaranteed Rate.

Rocket Mortgage was the top nonbank lender in non-agency jumbo loan production in the first quarter of 2023, per IMF estimates. Rocket originated $1.2 billion in volume, down 59.5% quarter over quarter and 64.7% year over year. UWM was the 9th largest jumbo lender by loan amount in 2022, with $7 billion in volume. The company was the seventh-largest by number of loans, with more than 6,690 loans. IMF estimates that UWM originated $651 million in non-agency jumbo mortgages from January to March 2023, up 70.5% quarter over quarter but down 71% year over year. 

“Across the board, we’ve seen banks back off of mortgages… which is a great opportunity for us and our brokers,” Alex Elezaj, chief strategy officer at UWM, told HousingWire. “But I still think banks like the jumbo product because of the customer acquisition play.”  

Starting this year, UWM changed its approach related to jumbo offerings, which resulted in the launching of six fixed-rate jumbo products in May. When announcing the new products, UWM said brokers would have access to “more competitive jumbo pricing, along with transparent investor guidelines and loan qualifications.”  

“Historically, we’ve kind of gone out to market with basically one product or one price, [and] then we tried to fit with the specific investor guidelines,” Elezaj said. “We took those same investors that are our partners, and we just aligned specific products to them.”

The new strategy offers a wider range of products, he noted. Elezaj said the new jumbo offerings are not “a big needle mover for UWM in terms of originations or profitability,” but help put brokers in a position to compete with big banks and retail lenders. UWM can’t beat the banks’ low cost of funds, which is their clients’ deposits, but the wholesale lender has its overall cost structure and competitive margin in its favor, he noted.

Meanwhile, Guaranteed Rate, which was the 10th largest lender by number of jumbo loans in 2022, is also looking for a piece of the jumbo pie, with 4,410 loans, according to HousingWire data. IMF estimates bring the company to No. 12 by volume in the first quarter, when it originated $690 million, down 37% quarter over quarter and 72.8% year over year. 

Kate Amor, senior vice president and head of enterprise products at Guaranteed Rate, said the lender remains “hyper-focused on being the best fintech retail originator in the country,” developing products that meet the needs of jumbo borrowers. 

“Nonbank jumbo is as competitive as it has ever been,” Amor said. “Guaranteed Rate continues to be a trailblazer in the jumbo market, having issued our own jumbo securitizations, and remains hyper-focused on offering a diverse range of products that serve all jumbo borrowers.”

Amor said retail banking failures created uncertainty in the market, with most depositories not active in the loan acquisitions space. Meanwhile, Wells exiting the correspondent channel created volatility in the secondary market, which smoothed out after a couple of months. 

The trend of retail banks underpricing 30-year fixed jumbos (non-economic pricing) has dissipated as deposits run off or pending capital requirements causing them to pause. However, “relationship pricing” is as strong as ever, Amor said. 

Do Wall Street firms have an appetite?

Large Wall Street firms see market opportunities with jumbo loans. For example, jumbo loans represented 96% of Goldman Sachs‘ total mortgage volume in 2022, the most of any lender.

Meanwhile, others taking an interest in the market are Northern Trust Co. (94%), Redwood Residential Acquisition Corp. (90%), BNY Mellon (88.8%), Charles Schwab Bank (87.9%) and defunct Silicon Valley Bank (87.7%). SVB originated $2 billion in jumbos last year, compared to $524.4 million in 2018, per HousingWire’s analysis.

Real estate investment trusts have also capitalized on banks’ retreat from the jumbo space.

In a recent call with analysts, Christopher Abate, CEO of Redwood, said the REIT will take advantage of Basel III rules by engaging with more banks to acquire their jumbo loans. Abate said the REIT had started conversations with more than 70 banks.  

“Over the past few months, we’ve completed onboarding and have already activated a number of regional and mid-sized banks with aggregate assets of over $2 trillion, and we’re in various stages of bringing many more online in the coming weeks and months,” Abate said.  

Before the onset of the regional bank crisis this past March, depositories originated two-thirds of all jumbo mortgages in the first quarter of 2023, Abate said. 

However, with so many changes in the market, including the Basel III proposed rules, Abate believes the future can be different. 

“We expect that through the benefit of hindsight, these regulatory changes will mark a major turning point in how most non-agency loans are owned and distributed in the United States.”

Flávia Furlan Nunes, a Mortgage Reporter at HousingWire, reported this story. Will Robinson, a Data Journalist at HousingWire, analyzed the data and created the visualizations. They can be reached at flavia@hwmedia.com and will@hwmedia.com.



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Homeowners in the United States have experienced a precipitous drop-off in the availability of home insurance policies this year, with the availability of certain policies having dropped by more than half, according to a report commissioned by insurance agency Matic Insurance.

“The report illustrates a homeowner searching for coverage from 10 national carriers in March 2022 may have been eligible for an average of 6.08 home insurance policies, whereas in 2023, they would have only been offered an average of 2.87 policies, representing a substantial 53% decrease,” the report said.

Homeowners in the U.S. experienced a 35% decrease in available policies per homeowner, according to the report. It also detailed the difficulties that homeowners in various states have faced when it comes to home insurance, notably Florida and California. The exodus may be spreading to other states, as data shows that areas prone to natural disasters are seeing a spike in homebuying activity.

“For states where insurance companies are experiencing premium change request delays, denials, or caps from insurance regulators, carriers are limiting or ceasing the writing of new policies, as a means to counter unsustainable loss ratios,” the report said. “While this trend has been a longstanding challenge in Florida, it is now beginning to impact other states such as California, Georgia, South Carolina, New Jersey, New York, and Arizona.”

Insurance carriers are also becoming more likely to exit states where they have an acrimonious relationship with state regulators, according to Ben Madick, CEO and co-founder of Matic Insurance. The 53% decrease in policy availability for homeowners seeking coverage adds to supply woes, as well.

“This supply and demand issue makes securing an insurance policy, especially in problematic states, a major challenge facing homebuyers and mortgage lenders,” said Madick. “The notable decline in policy availability can lead to loan closing delays if insurance is not in place.”

The lack of binding policy availability entirely online may also be adding to certain challenges, he added.

“It’s important to note that less than 10 home insurance carriers offer the ability to bind a policy 100% online,” Madick said. “Homebuyers and lenders need to prioritize insurance from the start of the loan closing process to account for wait times, especially for consumers bypassing a digital agency and working directly with carriers.”

This is all before addressing the rise of rates themselves. In regions where rate increases are approved by states, carriers pass those increases onto consumers, and rates have increased at an average of 9% in the first half of 2023 when compared to the prior year.

Matic’s report is sourced from an average of a random sample of nine million quoted and Matic-insured properties from June 1, 2018 through June 30, 2023. Additional data regarding declination and policy availability was gathered from 30 million quote requests to Matic, as well as third-party quoting engines and carrier direct quotes.



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Gregg Busch has shifted his business focus over the last year or so. And he hasn’t done so voluntarily. 

Busch is vice president and senior mortgage banker at First Savings Mortgage Corporation, a Virginia-based lender that produced $2 billion in mortgages in 2022, less than half the $4.2 billion volume of the previous year, per the mortgage data platform Modex

Until mid-2022, 65% of Busch’s pipeline were jumbos, conventional loans that exceed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac‘s purchase standards, as set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. (The FHFA’s conforming loan limit was a baseline of $647,200 in 2022, and $726,200 in 2023.)

In the secondary market, these jumbo loans are sold to other investors, such as real estate investment trusts, hedge funds and insurance companies.  

Targeting jumbos made sense for Busch as he is based in Washington, D.C., a market with high-income homebuyers that has experienced soaring home prices since 2020.  

But Busch cannot rely on jumbos these days.

Over the last year, top jumbo lenders have pulled back on the product due to surging mortgage rates and regulatory risks. Some regional banks working in the space collapsed due to a tightening monetary policy and a deposit run. Meanwhile, others have limited jumbo purchases from smaller lenders, like First Savings, via the correspondent channel

It is reflected in Busch’s portfolio. In June, only 30% of his mortgage production came from jumbo loans. To adapt to a shrinking market, the banker is focused on different borrower types who need non-jumbo products. 

“We’ve concentrated more on the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VA space. So, we’re going after more government and conventional loans,” Busch said. 

Busch’s experience illustrates how painful the jumbo loans downturn has been for bankers. But what explains this market’s decline? And what does the future hold for jumbos?

For this two-part series, HousingWire crunched the numbers to reveal how fast is the jumbo space shrinking and the markets that are most affected by this decline. Our analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data focuses on conventional, non-conforming first-lien mortgages used to purchase or refinance single-family dwellings.

In addition, HousingWire spoke to industry experts, lenders, and loan officers to share their insights on the jumbo market. 

Spoiler alert: the volatile, high-rate mortgage landscape is hitting jumbos harder than the overall mortgage market. Jumbo volume has nosedived in the traditional high-cost of living coastal markets of California, Florida and New York. More pain is yet to come, primarily for depositories.

For 138 lenders, no more jumbos! 

HousingWire’s data analysis shows that 3,122 lenders originated at least one jumbo loan in 2022, which means that 138 lenders exited the space last year, per the HMDA data. 

But go back a couple years and a more alarming pattern emerges for jumbo-focused bankers: 904 companies have stopped originating jumbo loans since 2018. (Overall, 1,173 lenders chose to stop originating conforming mortgages in the same period.)  

Jumbo production fell to $377.9 billion in 2022, down 41.3% from $643.4 billion in 2021 and closer to the level of 2019, when lenders originated $389.3 billion with the product. Jumbos represented 22.7% of residential single-family mortgage volume in 2022, up from 19% in the previous year but down from 24.4% in 2018. 

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Inside Mortgage Finance (IMF) data illustrates the recent trend lines: in the first quarter of 2023, lenders originated $37 billion in jumbos, down 36% quarter over quarter and 72% year over year. Jumbos’ decline year over year is greater than the 61% decrease in the overall mortgage market.  

California is the country’s most prominent market for jumbo loans. In 2022, volumes reached $117.5 billion, about 31% of all jumbo originations in the U.S., according to HousingWire’s analysis. Florida followed as a distant second with $32.3 billion originated in 2022 and New York was third at $27 billion.

The California housing market in particular has been extremely slow, with inventory at all-time lows and few home sales. In June, existing, single-family home sales declined 4% from May and 19.7% from June 2022. Insurers State Farm and Allstate announced that they would no longer be accepting new applications for business and personal lines of property and casualty insurance in California due to increased wildfire risks and rising construction costs. It all affects jumbos.

In D.C., where Busch originates loans, jumbos comprised 32.4% of conventional mortgages originated last year. Nationwide, that share is only eclipsed by California (40.3%) and Connecticut (32.8%). The geographic dynamics of jumbo loans have slowly changed since the pandemic, experts say.  

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Liz Bryant, head of retail mortgage sales at Citi, said that jumbo mortgage demand is typically stronger in high-cost coastal markets. However, the recent migration from these markets, spurred by Americans working from home in other states, has led to rising home values elsewhere, making demand for jumbos stronger in different places in the country.

“Top jumbo markets still include the New York tri-state area, Miami, Southern California, and the San Francisco Bay area, but have extended into other markets with high relocation activity,” Bryant said. 

According to Bryant, Seattle, Denver and Austin are examples of other markets that have experienced substantial employment and housing demand in recent years and thus heightened demand for jumbo loans. 

Texas was the fourth-largest market for jumbos in 2022, at $24.4 billion. Washington was the fifth ($17.7 billion), Massachusetts sixth ($15.1 billion) and Colorado seventh ($14.3 billion). 

A tough moment for banks 

Originating jumbos became trickier in the wake of the 2020-2021 refi boom. For starters, jumbo borrowers tend to be more affected by surging mortgage rates than the overall market because the loan balances are higher. 

The shrinking jumbo market also reflects the broader market forces related to this product — banks have historically used jumbo loans as a means to attract high-income clients who have millions in deposits.

These big banks attract customers by offering low rates on home loans; then, they try to sell those clients credit cards, insurance and other products and services. In addition, banks offer super-cheap jumbos to entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and other clients so they can issue commercial loans to their companies. 

Banks have a massive advantage over nonbank rivals: a balance sheet to keep jumbos in their portfolios. They don’t need to sell them immediately to investors to maintain their home loan business. 

“In fact, for the most part, jumbo loans over the last few years have been either originated by the bigger banks or originated by smaller lenders and sold to the bigger banks,” David Stevens, a former Mortgage Bankers Association‘s president and Federal Housing Administration commissioner, said. 

“Jumbo loans can’t be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So, they have to be sold into the private label market, or they have to be held on balance sheets. Independent mortgage bankers don’t have a balance sheet, so they can’t hold loans. And without much of a private label securitization market, they sell them through the correspondent lending channel.” 

However, banks are facing major headwinds, which trickles down to the jumbo space. 

Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, depositary lenders have been the target of increased regulatory scrutiny. As a result, some banks decided to exit the correspondent channel, which relies on the small lenders’ production, such as community banks and independent mortgage banks, because of potential ‘reputational damage.’ 

The most emblematic case is Wells Fargo. In January, the bank announced plans to close its correspondent business. The decision affects companies like First Savings, a correspondent partner. And bankers like Busch. 

Busch said underwriting on jumbos had tightened significantly over the last year, with depository lenders making fewer exceptions to their standard guidelines. Rates for jumbo loans at bank branches are also competitive compared to those offered to their correspondent partners. 

“At one of the biggest players in the secondary market for correspondent lending, if you go straight to the bank, you can get a mortgage on a 30-year fixed rate at 6.5%. For us, that same rate through their correspondent channel is 7%. When banks do jumbo loans, they want to have money from the client in the bank. It’s all about liquidity,” Busch said. 

On average, jumbo mortgage rates in the primary market remain modestly above conforming rates. At HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, Optimal Blue data showed rates for 30-year conforming at 6.97% on August 7, compared to 7.14% for jumbo loans. 

Kate Amor, senior vice president and head of enterprise products at Guarantee Rate, said that since the last great recession, jumbo pricing started to move inside of conforming pricing, something that had not previously been the case. The prevailing wisdom at the time was that jumbo borrowers had survived the last downturn; therefore, they were a great credit risk. 

“The positive spread between jumbo and conforming rate has always been driven by bank portfolio takeouts, whether in retail or correspondent (not so much wholesale), not by securitization, so the regional bank crisis is definitely causing the spread to invert,” said Amor. 

“In some ways, the market is returning to historic jumbo pricing.”

Stricter capital rules 

The most recent change from regulators affecting banks and, ultimately, jumbo offerings, came in July. Under changes to Basel III rules, the Federal Reserve, Federal Depository Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) proposed a residential mortgage capital requirement for large depository institutions that far exceeded international standards. 

First-lien whole loans prudently underwritten and performing to their original terms receive a 50% risk weight. Under the draft proposal, 40% to 90% risk weights would be assigned for large banks issuing residential mortgages, depending on the loan-to-value ratio (LTV), which is 20 basis points above the international standard.

Bose George, managing director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW), said the rule would impact the jumbo market, but this is a very high credit quality space. It means only a few loans would fall into the category of high LTV, ultimately having higher capital requirements. 

“We are assuming that the impact in the jumbo space is probably going to be slightly higher mortgage rates, as opposed to volume significantly shifting to the nonbanks,” George said. “Right now, there’s a gap between where banks offer rates on jumbo and where the securitization market needs to be. So, if we have rates go up by 5 or 10 basis points, it’s not going to move that away from the banks on the jumbo side.”

Executives at New York-based Rithm Capital, who said the market is at a transition point in tightening from monetary to regulatory, estimate that regulations open up over $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion in funding needs with $170 billion in additional capital requirements for banks. Assets impacted include mortgages, funding to corporates, market-making and trading intermediations and fee-based businesses. 

New regulatory requirements only added to the tightening monetary policy, leading to bank failures this year. Industry experts said that recent bank crises – including Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapses and the First Republic rescue by JPMorgan Chase – inevitably hit the jumbo space harder than the overall mortgage market. 

“For most of the last 10 or so years, all of the big banks and the regional banks have been competing for this business [jumbo loans] and the deposits that went with it,” Kevin Leibowitz, founder at the Brooklyn, New York-based brokerage Grayton Mortgage, said. “The thought was to win the borrower at a below market rate, and the borrowers’ assets will come with the mortgage.”

Leibowitz, however, said the unfortunate reality is that those deposits weren’t ‘sticky.’ 

“The departure of these assets is now evident in the having to sell mortgages (mortgage-backed securities) that were in a ‘held to maturity’ bucket on the bank’s balance sheet,” Leibowitz said. “Those assets were worth 80-90 cents on the dollar, and this created the mess from Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic.” 

“I think the days of big banks having ‘through the market pricing’ on jumbo mortgages is gone. And I don’t see it coming back.” 

Flávia Furlan Nunes, a Mortgage Reporter at HousingWire, reported this story. Will Robinson, a Data Journalist at HousingWire, analyzed the data and created the visualizations. They can be reached at flavia@hwmedia.com and will@hwmedia.com.



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Even as mortgage rates climbed over 7% in the past six weeks, home prices have not declined. But, we can see slightly fewer purchases happening. As demand dips, the prices are not. As a result, the available inventory of homes for sale is slightly higher each week. Not a lot higher, but inching up.

Mortgage rates are sitting at their highest levels in many years. Earlier this year, it looked like rates might ease back down a bit, but for a month and a half, they’ve bounced up. The surprisingly strong economy has the markets assuming the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, therefore, mortgage rates follow suit. Higher mortgage rates mean higher monthly payments, less affordability for home buyers and slightly fewer transactions. With fewer transactions, inventory is building just a bit as we approach the end of the summer. When will inventory peak for the year? There should be a few more weeks at least. Then, Altos will be on watch to see if another boost in mortgage rates — like last September — derails the real estate market again.

Inventory

Inventory is still climbing just a bit each week as we approach the end of the season. There are 488,000 single-family homes on the market now, that’s an increase of less than 1% from last week. There are 10% fewer homes on the market now than there were in 2022 at this time.

 

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I expect inventory to climb for another three weeks until the end of the month. I also expect another 1% inventory growth this coming week. Then, the pace will level off and start to decline in September.

It’s pretty common for inventory to peak during the last week of August. In fact, in 2022 inventory had also peaked in August, rounded the top and started declining for the fall when interest rates spiked in September. So, the number of homes on the market in 2022 increased in September and October which was very unusual. If rates jump again this fall, I’d expect the same behavior. The data shows that unusual increase in inventory in the chart above. The light red line represents the August inventory. It started curving down, but in September the buyers stopped and inventory surged. In 2022, inventory peaked during the last week of October. Compare that to this year’s curve and you can see how we’ll end 2023 with probably 20% fewer homes on the market than there were in 2022. 

I’ve said this before and I’ll repeat: consumers are more sensitive to the change in the mortgage rates than in the absolute levels. Mortgage rates are over 7% now, and the data shows slow demand. In 2022, rates jumped from the low 6% range to 7.5% in just a few weeks. It was that jump that stopped any buyers cold — the moment of change where people stopped buying. Those buyers stopped, so inventory grew late in the year. Now, rates are at 7% but they’ve been at this level for basically the whole year. So while demand is slow, it isn’t falling. I haven’t seen any indication that mortgage rates will drop from here, but if they did, buyers would respond and the available inventory of unsold homes on the market will fall too.

It’s no secret that sellers are absent in this market. Each week there are only 61,000 or 62,000 single-family homes that hit the market anywhere in the U.S. It was at this point in 2022 when new listings started plummeting each week. In September, even though new sellers were few, buyers were even fewer, so inventory rose. I’ve highlighted September 2022 in the chart below. Through July, new listings volume each week was in the normal range as in previous years.  Suddenly new listings volume dropped each week. That was the same time when buyers stopped of course. At the time I focused on the buyers — on only the demand side of the equation. I began to get bearish on home prices in 2023. Had I been more wise, more attentive, I could have seen the seeds of this year’s low-supply crisis being sown as early as August 2022. 

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The dark red line on this chart represents dramatically fewer new sellers each week than in normal years. 

The important takeaway in the new listings data is that there is still no sign, anywhere in the data, of a surge of sellers. There is no sign yet of inventory growing substantially in the near future. There are no AirBnB bust owners unloading in bulk. Investors aren’t panicking. There are no homeowners distressed and unable to pay their mortgages. In 2022, the data started to show this trend, and there were still lots of people who were assuming a bubble burst scenario was playing out — that there would be tons of supply, weak demand and plummeting home prices. None of those fears played out of course.

But the economy could still tank from here. We can’t assume that the market won’t change. If some of these classes of homeowners need to unload, if some of the fears about the housing market start to finally happen, it will appear very quickly in the weekly new listings data. As of right now, there is no sign of any surge in new listings. 

That brings us to the pace of sales. The market is still running below the pace of new contracts each week in 2022. There are 5% fewer sales now than in 2022 at this time. Even while the sales rate was tumbling in 2022, there are still fewer sales now. Demand by buyers is low of course, but as we just saw, this is a supply-constrained market. We have so few new listings each week, it’s impossible for the sales rate to climb.

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As long as mortgage rates stay at or above 7%, you can easily see how the slow sales rate will continue. Maybe in September or October, if we’re lucky, the sales rate will start coming in higher than the abysmal rate at the end of 2022. 

Pending Sales

Because we’ve had these surprising green shoots in the housing market all year, I’ve been looking for signs that transaction volume would pick up, maybe that we’d end 2023 stronger than 2022. But consumers are very slow to buy at 7% mortgage rates and that shows no signs of changing. There were 66,000 new pending sales this week with single-family homes across the U.S. That’s 5% fewer than in 2022 and 25-30% fewer sales each week compared to 2021. That sales rate is just showing no signs of growing. There’s no inventory for buyers to buy.

One implication is that you should expect downward revisions in the forthcoming NAR pending sales reports over the next few months. We’ve been at 4.2 million seasonally adjusted sales rate, and I could see that sliding closer to 4 million. In this chart, the height of each bar represents the total count of homes in contract in a given week. The light portion of the bar represents the new contracts that week. There are 10% fewer homes in contract pending than in 2022 at this time. 5% fewer new contracts this week. Maybe by September, there will be more home sales so that the fourth quarter of 2023 is a little stronger than Q4 2022. 

Prices

Home prices, meanwhile, are flat to a little higher than in 2022 at this time, depending on how you measure home prices. The median price of single-family homes in the U.S. is $450,000 right now. These are all the homes that are available to purchase. You can see in the dark red line at the far right end of the chart that prices are just off their seasonal peak and just below the all-time high set a year ago in June. Home prices tend to cluster around the big round numbers like $450,000, so it’s not uncommon to have several weeks where the median price is unchanged right at $450,000 or just a fraction below. Lots of properties get priced at the threshold so that buyers searching with an upper bound of $450,000 will see them. There are very few $451,000s and a lot of $449,000s.

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We can already see that home prices will have normal seasonal pressure to decline over the rest of the year. These are normal seasonal changes. Compare that trend to 2022 when you can see how steadily prices ratcheted down week after week last year. There’s no indication in the data that home prices will drop like they did late in 2022.

One of the places we see those leading indicators is in the median price of the newly listed properties each week. The sellers and listing agents in aggregate know exactly where the demand is for their new listings, so we can use those changes to know where future sales prices will be. The newly listed cohort this week was $399,499. The light red line is off the peak from earlier in the year. In 2022,  it was way off already and dropping quickly each week. That’s not happening now.

Examine the middle of the chart to see how the light red line in 2020 and 2021 stayed elevated late in the year. At that time, there was demand by buyers who kept pushing home prices higher. There isn’t upward price pressure right now, of course, but it’s always useful to keep your eyes on the price of the new listings to watch for the next shift in demand. 

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The median price of the homes in contract show that the sales prices are coming in just about 3% higher than in 2022.  The median price of the homes in the contract pending stage is unchanged this week at $385,000. That’s 3% higher than 2022 at this time when prices were plateaued at $375,000. The data shows this year’s dark red price line is now consistently above the 2022 light red curve. Home prices fell in June and July 2022 as the market finally swallowed the COVID-19 pandemic buying frenzy, and cheap money was gone forever. Home prices fell in the fourth quarter of last year with that late summer surge in mortgage rates.

If you are communicating with buyers and sellers about price expectations — maybe there are buyers on the fence waiting for home prices to drop, it’s probably wise for them to see that there is no sign of prices dropping. Likewise, if you have sellers who need to not panic about how much they can get for their home, this is really important data for them to see.

More next week. 



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In an industry facing headwinds, Connecticut-headquartered mortgage servicer and lender Planet Home Lending stands out among its peers, reporting double-digit increases in mortgage origination volume while competitors struggle to hit last year’s levels.

Planet Home Lending, founded in 2007, was the only firm among the country’s top-10 lenders that generated more year-over-year origination volume in the first half of this year, according to data from Inside Mortgage Finance

The company originated $13.93 billion in the first half of this year, up 11.7% year over year. By contrast, America’s top 50 mortgage lenders, on average saw origination volume drop more than 50% during the same period. 

The company’s strategy is to focus on acquisitions in both correspondent and retail channels, according to Michael Dubeck, CEO and president of parent company Planet Financial Group.

Planet’s acquisition of Homepoint’s delegated correspondent business in 2022 helped boost market share in the correspondent channel, said Dubeck, in an interview with HousingWire. About 70% of the company’s origination volume comes from the correspondent channel, the company said.

Dubeck stressed the complementary nature of the acquisition, allowing the company to extend its reach into new areas.

“I think we had 450 sellers and they (Homepoint) had 450 sellers. About three quarters of the clients stayed with us,” he said. “We’ve certainly seen some lenders fall by the wayside or exit the industry, but it’s really paid off here a year later,” Dubeck said. 

Planet Home Lending is the third-largest correspondent lender per IMF data — posting $6.2 billion in volume in that channel in Q1 2023. Its origination volume through the correspondent channel rose 20% from Q1 2022, making up for 7.2% market share in the channel. (PennyMac is the largest correspondent lender in America at 23.2% and AmeriHome Mortgage is a distant second at 9%.)

One boon for the company is the exit of a large market player. Planet Home Lending and other correspondent lenders are benefiting from Wells Fargo‘s exit from the correspondent channel in January, Dubeck said. 

Margins have improved over the last six to eight weeks, with less pricing competition.

“You’re seeing the banks under hugely increased regulatory scrutiny and capital requirements, and I think that’s all adding up to a better opportunity for correspondent lenders,” Dubeck said.

Origination volume from the correspondent channel was $6.27 billion in Q1 2023, marginally down from Q4 2022’s $6.54 billion, and up 20% from $5.22 billion in Q1 2022, according to the company’s financial earnings release in May. 

Acquisitions in tech and retail 

Planet Home Lending is also getting ready to launch a new loan origination system for its correspondent channel, the result of a tech acquisition from a lender that was exiting the business. (Dubeck declined to name the lender due to a non-disclosure agreement.) 

“It was a proprietary loan origination system developed by a correspondent lender. [We] closed on the deal earlier in the year and brought over some terrific developers that created the program,” Dubeck said.

“We’re good in the correspondent channel [in terms of M&A activity] but there’s plenty of opportunities.”

In June 2023, Planet Home Lending acquired Platinum Home Mortgage Corporation, bringing over 20 branches. Planet has brick-and-mortar branches across 21 states with about 250 loan officers.

“Where volumes are falling off, we added branches and we added LOs. As a result, it’s hugely complementary there in terms of footprint,” Dubeck said. 

Platinum helped the company grow its footprint on the West Coast, he added. 

Saving borrowers’ upfront costs through a temporary rate buydown and focusing on homebuilder strategies are key priorities for the company in the current environment.

“I think one reason that LOs and branches are attracted [to Planet] is the breadth of our product base and our ability to respond to changing markets by adding or modifying products,” he said. 

Servicing portfolio

Planet Home Lending’s total servicing portfolio ended Q1 at $77.03 billion, up 5% from the end of 2022, according to the lender’s financial earnings release in May. 

Total units rose to approximately 291,000 at the end of Q1 2023, increasing 3% from approximately 283,000 in Q4 2022. 

More recently, Planet Home Lending acquired a $10 billion MSR bulk of Ginnie Mae loans from Village Capital & Investment LLC. The company anticipates that it will continue bidding for MSRs “opportunistically” in the second half of the year.

“The MSR market is alive and quite robust with sellers looking to monetize their portfolio to generate cash and liquidity to run their business,” Dubeck said. 

Planet was the 29th largest servicer in the country in the first quarter of 2023, with a $68.5 billion owned mortgage servicing portfolio, according to IMF estimates. Servicing volume in Q1 2023 was 68.3% higher than in the same period last year, the data shows.

Looking to the future, Planet is exploring servicing as well as smaller merger and acquisition opportunities. “The acquisitions we’re doing are not huge, but they’re the right size for our platform,” Dubeck said. 



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Plunk, an AI-powered home analytics platform, has introduced a new tool called Plunk Pro that aims to transform the real estate market by offering real-time insights into home valuation, risk assessment, and remodeling possibilities.

The company’s new offering, Plunk Pro, provides real estate investors, advisors, and analysts with access to over 104 million homes nationwide. Users can receive real-time valuation data, predictive investment analysis, and thorough risk assessment.

In a market where stockbrokers and investors have been relying on real-time data for years and dealing with trades averaging $10,000, real estate has lagged behind, with deals typically worth much more. According to Ian Brillembourg, Plunk’s Head of Mobile Product, “The average sales price of a home in the US was $495,100 as of Q2 2023 — yet until now, there was no way for real estate brokers and investors to have access to real-time property valuation data and analysis.”

Plunk Pro, a web- and mobile-based application, will offer functionalities such as immediate home value determination, refined value adjustment, neighborhood comparisons, real-time market insights, remodel value estimation, and project recommendations for improving home value. These features are part of Plunk’s proprietary Dynamic Valuation Model, designed to improve accuracy and facilitate informed investment decisions.

Co-founder and CEO of Plunk, Brian Lent, stated that the company’s mission is to “unlock confident investing in the largest asset class in the world,” through the innovative use of artificial intelligence, deep learning, and other advanced technologies.

Apart from individual users and small teams, Plunk’s AI-powered home analytics will also be available for enterprise customers via API. The move promises to revolutionize how real estate professionals approach property investments by providing a clear and comprehensive understanding of various factors that influence home value.

With Plunk Pro, investors and real estate professionals now have access to an advanced platform that takes the guesswork out of property valuation and investment decisions, offering tools that could reshape the industry.

This content was generated using AI and was edited by HousingWire’s editors.



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Home prices are going up across the country after slowing for more than a year, according to a new report from data and analytics company Black Knight.

The report found that nationally, home prices in June rose by 0.67% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Meanwhile, the annual home price increase was 0.8% in June, up from just 0.2% in May. 

Calling the June price increase an inflection point, Black Knight Vice President of Enterprise Research Andy Walden said the rate of home price increases would have a “lagging, but significant impact on the annual rate of appreciation.” 

Month-over-month, home prices increased in more than 60% of markets, with notable exceptions in Austin and San Antonio, where prices declined month to month in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. The strongest price growth was in Hartford (+1.2%), Seattle (+1.2%) and San Jose (+1.2%). 

“At the national level, home prices have now fully erased their 2022 corrections hitting new all-time highs in June on both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted bases,” the report said.

Annual growth was strongest in the Midwest and Northeast markets, while West Coast and pandemic boom markets continue to see prices run below last year’s levels. Milwaukee (+6.4%), Cincinnati (+5.7%), and Philadelphia (+5.6%) are more than 5% above last year’s price peaks, with a handful of Midwest and Northeast markets, including Kansas City, Virginia Beach, Richmond, Baltimore, Providence, St. Louis and Chicago up more than 4%.

Rising home prices also boosted homeowner equity levels. The average mortgage holder now has $199,000 in equity, up from $185,000 in the first quarter, but down from $207,000 at the same time last year. Strong equity positions are one element of today’s historically strong mortgage performance, the report said.

The June report also quantifies the savings during the last big wave of refinance activity. Existing homeowners who have benefitted from $42 billion in cumulative savings through refinancing in the past three years are now also benefiting from strong income growth, according to Black Knight. Existing homeowners need 21% of the median household income to make the average monthly principal and interest payment, compared to more than 36% for prospective homebuyers in today’s market. 

Low interest rates locked in during the pandemic are keeping payments down for existing homeowners and contributing to low delinquency levels. Meanwhile, owing to high interest rates, affordability for prospective homebuyers is at near 37-year lows. 

For existing homeowners, the relatively low share of income required to meet mortgage obligations along with the strong credit quality are contributing to a 16-year low in seriously delinquent mortgages, the report said.



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After failing to achieve its goal of remaining adjusted EBITDA positive in 2022, analysts were unsure if Compass would make good on its most recent financial goal of becoming free cash flow positive in the second quarter of 2023. But the Robert Reffkin-helmed brokerage has proved the naysayers wrong, at least for now.

During the second quarter of 2023, Compass recorded a free cash flow of $51 million, compared to a free cash flow loss of $59 million the prior quarter. Kalani Reelitz, the firm’s chief financial officer, also noted that Compass repaid the remaining $150 million draw it had taken out form its revolving credit facility in July.

“I am pleased to share that in the second quarter we grew market share, grew agent count and grew margin while delivering positive free cash flow and strengthening our cash position,” Reffkin told investors and analysts listening to Compass’ second quarter earnings call Monday evening. “We achieved strong financial results that were inline with guidance in the midst of a quarter that was impacted by mortgage rates increasing 100 basis points to 7%.”

Executives attributed this success to Compass’ commitment to cutting operating expenses, which came in at $1.54 billion for the quarter. A year ago, its Q2 operating expenses were $2.11 billion.

Compass’ free cash flow win came despite a 26% annual drop in revenue to $1.5 billion, which the brokerage attributed to a 19% year-over-year decrease in transaction sides to 54,207, combined with a decrease in the average home sale price, as the brokerage’s gross transaction value dropped 26% year over year to $56.8 billion.

While Compass may have been free cash flow positive for the quarter, the brokerage still reported a net loss of $46.9 million. However, this is an improvement compared to the $101 million net loss reported a year ago.

Compass executives were also pleased that the firm’s free cash flow success came alongside its third consecutive quarter of market share growth, which came in at 4.6% for the quarter, up 13 basis points from Q1 2023. In addition, Compass also reported an increase of 429 principal agents compared to a year ago and a retention rate of over 90%.

“We are seeing competitors reduce the financial incentives they were using in attempt to recruit Compass agents and a race to the bottom environment where many traditional brokerages that historically competed on value-add and support services,” Reffkin said. “We are now seeing these firms cut back on these areas and many cases are adding themselves to the already crowded low cost, low value brokerage services landscape. Compass is going the other direction. We are trying to widen our competitive advantage as the high value brokerage space is becoming much less crowded.”

Reffkin said that it would not surprise him that in the years to come, Compass being “the only major national brokerage competing to serve agents high value products and services.”

Greg Hart, Compass’ chief operating officer, added: “We continue to grow our principal agent count since we eliminated cash and equity sign on incentives last summer. The vast majority of agents tell us the Compass platform is the number one reason for coming to Compass.”

Compass will continue looking for expansion opportunities through strategic mergers and acquisitions, executives said.

The brokerage’s next goal is to remain free cash flow positive for the full year 2023. Executives said they’ll continue to focus on Compass’ technology offerings, as well as expanding its title and escrow business integration, which recently launched in San Diego.

By the end of 2023, Compass plans to expand this integration into all markets where it offers title and escrow including Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia.

“We are very strong and we are still investing in growth in the platform,” Reffkin said. “We are excellently positioned for the cyclical upturn that will come when the market normalizes.”  



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The strongest agents are constantly analyzing their return on investment regarding how they’re spending both their time and their money. This includes money spent on their business as well as their personal lives. Below are the top 10 powerful secrets that strong agents use to stay motivated and keep the right mindset for success.    

If they’re not getting more out than they’re spending in return, the expenditure isn’t worth it. 

‘Breaking even’ doesn’t count, because of the time lost and effort expended to get the results. Results mean trackable, profitable, closed business. Not just leads, impressions or likes. 

They are actively and aggressively isolating themselves from the media, both online and off. 

They are making their world smaller regarding who is influencing them. Following a  media-free morning or media-free life is a good start. Eliminating negative feeds from social media is another good strategy to ‘build a moat’ around your mindset! 

They are constantly monitoring their own internal dialog. 

Has negative thinking entered their mindset? Strong agents are self-aware of the unintended consequences of allowing one negative thought to manifest. 

They are hyper-aware of their own market conditions. 

They study what’s selling, what’s not and what the hot price ranges and zip codes are. Strong agents know where the new construction is being built and they know what’s happening with mortgages. They’re not hiding out waiting for the market to lift them up. 

Their mantra is ‘If it’s meant to be, it’s up to me!’ 

They are very proactive in their lead generation, having more conversations with more prospects. 

They’re not reliant on lucking into repeat or referral business, and they’re not addicted to buying leads. They are working with multiple sources of business at once. 

They are aware that when they’re feeling out of control, they’ll subconsciously look for things to control. 

This sometimes manifests in overeating, substance abuse, and wrecking relationships. That gives them the feeling of control, but it’s destructive. Powerful agents (and people) are introspective before they make those mistakes. 

They recognize their own ‘early warning signs’ as the trigger to the bad behavior and take a step back before causing more drama to themselves, their prospects, clients or family. 

They are empathetic to the fact that other people don’t have the mechanisms to adapt quickly to the forced changes happening in the economy.

Strong agents forgive easily and quickly because they understand that others are stressed. They offer a positive light backed by facts and thoughtful solutions, rather than jumping in the moshpit of negativity or drama.

Because they’re rooted in a mindset of service, they are genuinely excited and appreciative of the opportunities in the market.

They are focused on the many people who genuinely need help and they are there to be of service.   

They know that knowledge leads to confidence and ignorance leads to fear. 

Thus they are constantly increasing their skillset so they can increase their confidence. They’re seeking out new ways to be able to help more people in a variety of circumstances. An example of this is knowing how to explain different types of mortgage loan programs that get the interest rates down and make the payment more attractive. 

They’re involved in Premier Coaching. 

They actively get overwhelming value from the daily, semi-private coaching sessions! 

Tim and Julie Harris host a podcast for real estate professionals. Tim and Julie of Premier Coaching have been real estate coaches for more than two decades, coaching the top agents in the country through different types of markets.



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